FILE - People walk past the New York Stock Exchange, Dec. 11, 2023, in New York. Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession in 2024. And any downturn would likely result from an external shock, such as a conflict involving China, rather than from domestic economic factors such as higher interest rates. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, File)
February 12, 2024
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Recession risks are fading, business economists say, but political tensions pose threat to economy
Just a quarter of business economists and analysts expect the United States to fall into recession this year. And any downturn would likely result from an external shock — such as a conflict involving China — rather than from domestic economic factors such as higher interest rates. But respondents to a National Association of Business Economics survey released Monday still expect year-over-year inflation to exceed 2.5% — above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target — through 2024.