One eye on the rear view mirror

Last year, the Billings Skyview wrestling team painted the Billings Metra royal blue and silver, winning the Class AA state title by 31 points while Flathead played the despondent bridesmaid.

But the Falcons shouldn't count on a repeat performance.

The proof? Results from last weekend's 18th annual Mining City Duals.

Butte proved once again that its tournament is the best outside of the state championship. Twenty-four teams came and wrestled hard, but only one team, Class A Sidney, walked away with first place.

Well, Sidney didn't exactly walk away with it. The Eagles fought past a fierce Flathead Braves team looking to win the dual tournament for the first time ever. The Braves have placed second, fourth, third and second the last four years.

But the match everybody wanted to see (especially those watching AA wrestling) never happened. Fans from Billings Skyview and Flathead were hoping the runner-up Braves and state champion Falcons would tangle before the weekend was over.

Unfortunately, the two passed by each other in the semis. Sidney beat Billings, and Flathead defeated last year's dual champ Havre to meet in the finals. Skyview had to settle for third place.

Falcon hopefuls are convinced their team would embarrass the Braves head on, but a quick look at the weekend's results shows quite the opposite.

For example, both teams shared dual foes in Havre and Sidney. Flathead met Havre first and won 51-27.

In the semifinal match, Skyview beat Havre 48-34, a win that was 10 points less than the Flathead matchup.

The Braves then took Sidney all the way to the final match, tied 32-32. Sidney's Beau Melby pinned Scott Cassel in the first period, but Melby pins most people in the first period. The final tally had Flathead down by six points.

And how did Skyview fare against the No. 1 ranked team in the Northwest? The Falcons lost to Sidney 47-29, a full 18 points. Eighteen points goes a long way in wrestling. That's a difference of three pins.

The numbers don't lie, and they are speaking loud and clear - Flathead beat the same two opponents by 28 more points than Skyview. The state champions better start looking over their shoulder.

In a theoretical matchup, Skyview would probably win matches at 98, 130 and 145 pounds. Battles that could go either way would be T.C. Decker and Jesse Obergfell at 112 pounds, Ryan Nelson against Malcolm Kintzing at 140 pounds and Mikey Kuehne vs. Jordan Duffield at 152 pounds. Kuehne would be slightly favored, but Duffield is a strong competitor.

With all of that in mind, Flathead still has nine matches it would likely win against Skyview. In a dual match, I would put the Braves at 33-24 over Billings Skyview.

Of course, we'll never know now, because these teams will only meet at the CMR Holiday Classic this weekend and then at state, two non-dual events. Wrestlers from both teams will, however, run into each other in the championship brackets. Team scores this weekend will be a telling omen for state.

The season is early and speculation only goes so far, but established programs like Skyview and Flathead get running quickly. With the Braves under the accomplished tutelage of Jeff Thompson, a second state title in three years is Flathead's for the taking.

Skyview will have a strong showing at state, but unless the Braves fall apart, the Falcons won't win it all. Besides, the Metra looks better in orange and black.