Ochs, Griz have big edge vs. Bearkat secondary
The Daily Inter Lake
How Montana and Sam Houston State matchup in today's Division I-AA semifinal:
Griz QBs and WRs vs.
Bearkat DBs and Safeties
KEY PLAYERS: During Montana's five-game winning streak, Griz quarterback Craig Ochs has completed 75 percent of his passes for almost 1,300 yards with 13 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Receivers Jefferson Heidelberger, Jon Talmage, Levander Segars and Tate Hancock, as well as tight end Willie Walden, give Ochs several options on any pass play, and the senior transfer from Colorado has demonstrated the intelligence and patience to find the open receiver.
The Bearkats' secondary hardly strikes fear into the heart of opponents. Sam Houston has the 87th-ranked pass defense. Safety Paul Donalson leads the team with 99 tackles, including 10 for loss. Cornerback Mark Hughes has five interceptions on the season.
OUTLOOK: For Ochs to succeed in throwing the ball, he has to be protected. If his battered offensive line can give him some time, there is no reason not think he won't have another monster day.
ADVANTAGE: Huge edge in talent and performance to Montana.
Griz RBs vs.
Bearkat Front Seven
KEY PLAYERS: Lex Hilliard, Justin Green, J.R. Waller and even fourth-stringer Brady Green have all had good games over the last five weeks. Hilliard in particular has emerged as the leader in the backfield with his combination of acceleration, speed and power proving to be too much for opponents to handle. Waller and Justin Green would likely be the featured back at many other schools, and Colt Palmer has been solid as a fullback/H-back.
Sam Houston's defensive line and linebackers have not been terribly effective stopping the run. The Bearkats give up an average of 165.5 yards per game on the ground, including 446 to Northwestern State. Montana averages 157.3 per game, and has been running the ball much better over the last month.
OUTLOOK: Again, a lot will depend on the health of the offensive line. But you have to figure Hilliard and company will still be able to have a good game against a weak run defense.
ADVANTAGE: Griz, by a wide margin.
Griz Offensive Line vs.
Bearkat Defensive Line
KEY PLAYERS: If Brad Rhoades is recovered enough from a stomach virus that kept him out of the New Hampshire game, that will solidify the tackle position along with Cory Procter. Inside, it's another story. Guard Jason Frink was injured last week forcing Ryan Wells into action. Cody Balogh filled in nicely for Rhoades, but with center Jay Green already out for the year, there is just so much one unit can take.
The Bearkats defensive line is led by John Griffin's 65 tackles. Backup Aaron Ivey has a team-high three sacks. On the year, Sam Houston has 16 sacks; the Griz have allowed 32.
OUTLOOK: Montana's offensive line has played very well over the last five weeks, and a lot of that is a tribute to assistant coaches Dominic Daste and Dave Schramm. The Griz have handled two solid defensive programs, including top-ranked Northwestern State, in
the playoffs.
ADVANTAGE: If their health holds, a slight edge to Montana.
Bearkat QBs and WRs vs.
Griz DBs and Safeties
KEY PLAYERS: Sam Houston Quarterback Dustin Long is second in the nation in passing, first in total offense. He's thrown for over 4,200 yards already and has set several school records along the way. Receivers Jarrod Fuller and Jason Mathenia are each over 1,000 yards on the year and Vincent Cartwright has 630 yards and six touchdowns.
Montana is still ranked last in the nation in pass defense, but has been much better over the last month. Cornerback Kevin Edwards has six of the Grizzlies' 21 interceptions. Brothers Tyler and Torey Thomas have played well at safety, as has Van Cooper Jr., who has 53 tackles.
OUTLOOK: As much as the Griz have improved throughout the year defending the pass, this is still a prolific Sam Houston offense. The key for Montana will be to limit big plays - the Bearkats have 12 plays for over 50 yards - and force a turnover or two.
ADVANTAGE: Sam Houston, big time.
Bearkat RBs vs.
Griz Front Seven
KEY PLAYERS: Montana's defensive strength all year has been stopping the run. The defensive line of Mike Murphy, Blake Horgan, John Cahill and Dustin Dlouhy has been superb, with Cahill and Dlouhy filling in for injured starters Jonny Varona and Lance Spencer.
Relying mostly on its passing game, Sam Houston does not run very often, ranking 91st in the nation. When they do hand it off, it's usually to Jason Godfrey.
OUTLOOK: The Griz can't be so focused on stopping the pass that they forget about the run, not that it's likely Sam Houston would run the ball even if they do.
ADVANTAGE: Montana in a landslide.
Bearkat Offensive Line vs.
Griz Defensive Line
KEY PLAYERS: For Montana, it's the starters mentioned above as well as a number of substitutes who rotate in and out with regularity. The Griz have recorded 34 sacks while Sam Houston has allowed just six.
Bearkats center Steve Izevbizua and tackle Chris Louvier were both first team all-Southland Conference picks.
OUTLOOK: This will likely be the key matchup of the game - can Montana get pressure on Long to disrupt the passing game and give the secondary a break.
ADVANTAGE: Call it a draw. Montana will control the line when it comes to the run, Sam Houston has the edge in passing situations.
Overall
Montana has played exceptionally well since losing at Portland State at the end of October. Not coincidentally, all of the Grizzlies' games since then have been at home.
Washington Grizzly Stadium will be the X-factor today. The largest hostile crowd the Bearkats have played in front of is 13,731 at Stephen F. Austin, and today's game is a sellout meaning over 23,000 will be on hand. Both Northwestern State and New Hampshire have had trouble running their offenses the last two weeks, and another noisy gathering could be the difference.
History is also on Montana's side. No team from the South has come into Missoula and left with a win in the playoffs, though the Bearkats did beat Eastern Washington last week in rain, snow and cold. The Griz have hosted semifinal games on four previous occasions and won each time.
This year's playoff run seems no different, as two teams with potent offenses have come into Washington Grizzly Stadium only to be rendered impotent by the crowd, weather and mystique.
But it's unlikely this Sam Houston team will suffer the same ill effects. Expect the Bearkats to move the ball. But the Montana defense has shown an ability to allow yards without points to match. If they can do that again, and the offense continues to click, the Griz will be on Tennessee time next week.
PREDICTION: Montana 45, Sam Houston State 38.