CHATTANOOGA, Tenn. - Here's a look at how the Griz and the Dukes match up:
Griz QBs and receivers
vs. Dukes Secondary
Key Players: By now you should know all about Montana quarterback Craig Ochs and his plethora of throwing options, from the talented quartet of wideouts (Jefferson Heidelberger, Levander Segars, Jon Talmage and Tate Hancock) to the underused but always effective tight end (Willie Walden) to the running backs coming out of the backfield (Lex Hilliard, Justin Green and even J.R. Waller).
"Craig's the best quarterback in I-AA football," UM coach Bobby Hauck said. "He's the best quarterback in our league and he's the best one I've been around. He's on quite a roll, he does everything right, he throws for a high percentage, he leads the team, he gets the offense into all the right checks. I'm just thankful he's on our football team."
Over the last six weeks (all wins), Ochs has completed almost 75 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns to just two interceptions, and lately has been spreading his passes around so well that he's had two leading receivers in each of the three playoff games.
"Their linebackers are awfully, awfully important," Ochs said. "They run real well. From a quarterback's perspective, my biggest concern is those guys getting in my passing lanes. They read the eyes of the quarterback very well."
James Madison's secondary is led by redshirt freshman Tony LeZotte, the co-newcomer of the year in the Atlantic 10, with a team-high 137 tackles. Free safety Rodney McCarter has 86 tackles and cornerback Clint Kent has four picks.
"He's a good football player," Hauck said of LeZotte. "He does a great job of playing the run, he's a good tackler. It will be interesting to watch him down the road to see what happens with him the next few years."
Analysis: The Dukes allow about 230 yards a game through the air - not great, not awful. But even though the Griz struggled to get things going early, the smart money is on Ochs & Co. doing what they want, when they want.
Advantage: A big edge to the Griz.
Griz RBs
vs. Dukes front seven
Key Players: Montana can mix it up with three running backs who offer differing styles. Hilliard has become the main option out of the backfield, followed by Green and Waller. The Griz were flat awful in the first half last week against Sam Houston, and some of that can be attributed to yet another offensive line combination. Hauck indicated Thursday he would stick with the lineup from last week, and at this point continuity is probably the best bet.
Although Montana did finish the semifinal game with a decent rushing total, a lot of it was due to two big scrambles by Ochs. The running backs, and particularly the line, never really established any rhythm.
"They did a great job game-planning to stop the run," Green said of the Bearkats. "I feel that Sam Houston thought they had been run on a little bit in the past and they felt that was the thing they needed to do, stop the run.
"The thing about Sam Houston is those guys are really fast. They're a lot smaller and extremely fast. They hit you real low. James Madison definitely has the same caliber players."
It's a little disquieting that James Madison comes in with the second-ranked rushing defense in I-AA. But, ask Northwestern State - which had the No. 1 run defense - how things worked out for them in the first round against the Griz.
The Dukes have a big defensive line, averaging almost 280 pounds on the inside, and big-hitting, physical linebackers that gobble up what the line misses. Tackle Brandon Beach has 54 tackles and four sacks, linebacker Kwynn Walton has 13 tackles for loss among his 83 take downs and Trey Townsend has 96 tackles.
Analysis: Based on the way Montana struggled last week, this is definitely an area of concern. If anything during these playoffs, though, we've learned that this Griz team can make adjustments.
Advantage: Got to give it to the Dukes right now, but it could quickly swing to the Griz if they can establish something early.
Griz offensive line
vs. Dukes defensive line
Key Players: For the Griz, at this point it isn't necessarily who plays, but where. Last week saw left tackle Cory Procter move to right guard, right tackle Brad Rhoades - coming back from an illness that kept him out of the New Hampshire game - and right guard Chris Orwig move to the left side, and true freshman Cody Balogh at right tackle for the second straight week. Hauck said that the plan was to use that same lineup, but "that can change up to game time."
The results were mixed. The ground game struggled, though Ochs was never really rushed in the pocket - his long runs came about from a lack of open receivers, not pressure.
That could change today. The Dukes have 55 sacks on the year and that physical front seven that stops the run can dominate the line of scrimmage.
Analysis: The Montana coaching staff has demonstrated an ability to craft a game plan to fit its personnel and opponent. That was thrown off a little last week as the available players for the offensive line weren't known until the night before, a problem that should not be in play this week, so things should not be as bad.
Advantage: Call it a draw if the personnel on the line stay the same and in the same position as last week. Give it to the Dukes if again the line is jumbled.
Dukes QBs, receivers
vs. Griz secondary
Key Players: Like Ochs for Montana, Dukes quarterback Justin Rascati is a Division I-A transfer. And while James Madison is known as a running team, Rascati can get it down through the air, throwing about 19 times a game and completing 65 percent of the passes. He doesn't get big yardage, only 136.6 a game, but they are important yards including 14 touchdowns. Rascati only has five picks on the year.
D.D. Boxley leads the receivers with 609 yards and five TDs. Nic Tolley has 382 yards.
Montana still ranks last in the nation in pass defense, thought that's more a reflection of how poorly the secondary played in the early part of the season.
Last week, cornerback Tuff Harris was almost single-handedly responsible for keeping Sam Houston out of the end zone while at the same time setting up two Griz touchdowns with two key first half interceptions. Montana plays a lot of guys in the secondary, and they've all improved throughout the year.
Analysis: The biggest area of concern here is if the secondary gets too keyed on helping stop the run and gets burned by a big play.
Advantage: Griz, easy.
Dukes RBs vs.
Griz front seven
Key Players: This is where James Madison makes its living. The Dukes run a lot, and get a lot of yards. Over 200 a game on average. And they spread it around, too, with three backs averaging over 58 yards a game, and Rascati chips in with another 22.
Raymond Hines leads the team with 1,038 and 10 touchdowns. Maurice Fenner is right behind with 811 and seven and Alvin Banks has 466 and four, though JMU coach Mickey Matthews said Banks would not suit up with a rib injury. Rascati has run it in eight times.
Montana's front seven routinely goes two-deep on the depth chart, and the defensive line has really played well in the playoffs. Mike Murphy, John Cahill, Blake Horgan and Dustin Dlouhy start with Alan Saenz, Kroy Bierman and Kerry Mullan rotating in for relief. Nick Vella, Adam Hoge and Shane MacIntyre start at linebacker.
Analysis: James Madison is going to run the ball no matter what. The Griz better be ready to stop it, or at least slow it down.
Advantage: Slight edge to the Dukes. Call it even if Spencer can contribute.
Dukes offensive line
vs. Griz defensive line
Key Players: Size is the key player here. The Dukes average 304 pound across the line, led by 340-pound tackle Corey Davis. Guard Matt Magerko is the lightweight of the bunch at 285.
But Montana has handled imposing offensive lines before, be it the pass protection of Sam Houston or the run starters of Northwestern State. Murphy and Dlouhy have been exceptional at the end positions, getting five sacks between them last week on three-man rushes.
And if Spencer comes back? Well, that could be huge.
Analysis: This is the critical matchup of the game. James Madison's line has been called dominant at times, and if the Griz can at least hold their own at the point of attack they might be able to force JMU out of its game plan.
Advantage: Call it a draw, with the team coming out ahead in this matchup winning the game.
Outlook
If Montana's championship game history is any indication, tonight's game will be a close, low-scoring affair. Three of the Grizzlies' four previous trips were decided by seven points or less, twice by two points.
That includes the 22-20 win over Marshall in 1995 that featured another prolific quarterback, Dave Dickenson. It also featured a Marshall assistant coach named Mickey Matthews, who now patrols the sidelines for James Madison as the head coach.
"I don't know what it is about Montana quarterbacks," Matthews bemoaned. "Last time they had a guy named Dickenson we had to try to stop and this year they have another great quarterback."
Having never seen Dickenson in person, it's difficult to compare him to Ochs. But it's clear Ochs is a clutch performer who has played his best in the playoffs.
So assuming Hauck is true to his word and the offensive line stays in tact, and his assistant coaches devise a game plan to run the ball at least a little, expect the Griz to be able to handle the Dukes, even if James Madison runs all over the field.
The game starts at 8 p.m. local time, meaning total darkness. The bright lights of Finley Stadium will be on, emphasizing the importance of the game. And even though both teams have tried to downplay it, only the Griz have players who have been here before.
All other things being equal, that is what swings the game in favor of Montana.
Prediction: Griz 31, Dukes 17.