Concerns rise as snow fails to show

If it seems to be the sunniest, driest February in memory, your perceptions are correct - the National Weather Service is projecting that this February will be the driest for the Flathead Valley in more than 100 years.

There's no precipitation in the forecast through the end of the month, and so far the valley has received just .03 inches of precipitation this month.

The previous low of .55 inches for February was recorded in 1904.

Since last Oct. 1 - the beginning of the "water year" - the valley has received just 4.15 inches, the 12th lowest on record. The driest on record for Oct. 1 through Feb. 25 was 2000-2001, when the Flathead Valley received just 3.01 inches.

Most of the precipitation for the current water year came prior to January, however.

Since Jan. 1, the valley has received .81 inches, well below the 30-year average of 2.46 inches for January and February.

The dry weather is a result of an El Nino weather pattern coming off the Pacific Ocean that has produced a prolonged "split jet stream" that has pushed moisture far to the south or far to the north of the Pacific Northwest, said Peter Felsch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Missoula.

"Most of the real, strong weather systems have gone through southern California or way up through northern British Columbia," Felsch said.

Meanwhile a high-pressure ridge has persisted over Montana and Idaho, producing unusually sunny days and higher temperatures for February in the Flathead Valley. This month's average daily high temperature has been 40.8 degrees, while the 30-year average for the month is 34 degrees.

This winter's weather has only worsened Montana's six-year drought.

A National Drought Monitor Internet site shows Montana and portions of Idaho standing out from the rest of the nation with "extreme," "exceptional" or "severe" drought conditions.

Mountain snowpack readings are plummeting to record lows in some parts of the state, particularly in the Sun, Marias and Teton river basins, which are collectively at 43 percent of the 30-year average snowpack.

Snowpack measurements in Northwest Montana have been dropping because of the lack of precipitation.

The Flathead River Basin's snowpack is at 55 percent of average while the Kootenai River Basin snowpack is at 57 percent of average.

And the trend of no precipitation is expected to continue through the first week of March, based on a short-term forecast.

The weather service's long-range forecast is projecting below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures through the entire month of March.

Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com