Flathead snowpack hits record low
Driven by the driest February in 100 years, the Flathead River Basin now has a record low snowpack.
And there is no relief in sight, according to National Weather Service officials.
As of the end of February, snowpack measurements at more than a dozen sites above the Flathead Basin show snow levels at 51 percent of the 30-year average.
And those measurements averaged out are 2 inches below earlier record lows set at the end of February 2001.
The basin has the lowest snow levels since reliable measurements started in 1961, according to Roy Kaiser, water supply specialist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service, the agency in charge of monitoring snowpack and streamflows.
The Kootenai River Basin, meanwhile, has a snowpack that's at 50 percent of the 30-year average, with average measurements that are barely above record lows set in 1977.
"When we talk about these record lows, we're really kind of in uncharted territory considering the drought we've had for the last six years," Kaiser said. "We've really not been here before in terms of the number of drought years strung together, and now we get record lows."
Kaiser said the cumulative effects could be profound in terms of streamflows and groundwater supplies.
Kaiser's streamflow forecasts, which assume there will be normal precipitation from March through June, project dismal flows for many Northwest Montana rivers.
Projected flows are 61-67 percent of average on the North Fork Flathead; 53-57 percent of normal on the Middle Fork Flathead; 30-35 percent of average on the Stillwater River near Whitefish; 42-47 percent of average on the Whitefish River near Kalispell; and 22-26 percent of average on Ashley Creek south of Kalispell.
The Ashley Creek forecast "really reflects the lack of snow at low elevations," Kaiser said.
National Weather Service officials said Thursday that most of Western Montana requires precipitation at 200 percent above average over the next three months to ensure normal streamflows.
Several automated snow measuring sites at middle or low elevations are recording record low measurements. The Kraft Creek station near Condon (at an elevation of 4,750 feet) has 4.2 inches of snow water content, well below the March 1 record low of 5.4 inches set in 1951.
A 3.9-inch measurement at Hand Creek, located near Star Meadows at 5,035 feet, is below the record low of 5.7 inches set in 1984.
In Glacier National Park, the Many Glacier site is recording 3.1 inches, far below a 1977 record low of 7.9 inches.
Despite the extremely dry conditions in Northwest Montana, it is not the driest part of the state.
That distinction goes to the Sun, Teton and Marias river basins, where snowpack is 42 percent of the 30-year average.
Peter Felsch, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Missoula, said immediate and long-term forecasts show no change in weather patterns that have left Montana dry with mostly blue skies over the last several weeks.
The Flathead Valley received just .03 inches of precipitation during February, compared to the previous record low of .06 inches in 1934. This February was the driest the Flathead has experienced since record keeping started more than 100 years ago.
A normal February has 1.15 inches of precipitation.
Since January, a high-pressure ridge has persisted over the region, with Pacific moisture going across the southwestern United States or northern British Columbia, driven by a split jet stream.
"The last real trough we had in the Northern Rockies was in early January," Felsch said. "This is really unprecedented to have a ridge pattern persist for two months.
"I would say that there is some hope, maybe by the middle of the month, maybe after, that we would see some change in the weather we have right now," he said.
Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com