Cultivating options: Ag luncheon discusses fate of Flathead's cropland

Imagine the Flathead Valley without its amber waves of grain.

Imagine a time when lawns and fences replace the long, open fields … a time when farmers no longer work the land.

The situation here isn't quite that desperate. However, Mark Lalum with Cenex Harvest States thinks at least a quarter of all cropland in the valley might not be under cultivation 10 years from now.

This conversion to other land uses is being driven both by age and by economics, said Lalum, speaking to about 180 people during the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce's Ag Appreciation Day luncheon on Tuesday.

"The Department of Agriculture estimates that 20 percent of U.S. farmers will retire in the next 10 years," Lalum said. "That's about 318,000 farmers."

The average age of farmers nationwide is about 55, and it's probably pushing 60 in the Flathead, he said. Consequently, several full-time farmers here will likely retire in the next decade.

Of the 78,000 acres of cropland in the valley, Lalum said his best guess is that almost 35,000 acres are being worked by farmers who could potentially retire in the next 10 years.

This includes an estimated 19,450 acres being worked by farmers who are in their late 60s or older, plus another 15,249 acres being worked by farmers who are in their late 50s or early to mid-60s.

Some of them have sons or other family members who could take over the farm, Lalum said, but even after taking that into account, there's still about 20,000 acres or 25 percent of all the cropland here that might be left without a farmer to farm it by 2015.

"The question becomes, what's going to happen to the land?" he said.

Two of the invited panelists at Tuesday's luncheon offered some possible answers to that question.

Dan Brosten, whose family has been farming in the Lower Valley since the 1890s, said he and his brother have begun buying farmland in Fairview, east of Choteau.

Land prices in the Flathead are so high right now, it's possible to sell 100 acres here and buy 600 acres or more in Fairview, he said. The larger land base allows for a more efficient use of equipment; it also creates the economies of scale and long-term stability needed to justify the sizable capital investments required in agriculture.

"It's nothing to spend $100,000 on a combine that only runs three weeks out of the year," Brosten said. "It's tough to do that when you're on a three-year lease. We've been expanding in Fairview because we wanted to control our own destiny."

Like most large farmers in the Flathead, the Brostens own some of their fields and lease the rest.

Lalum estimated that about 45 percent of the cropland in the valley is being leased. Some landlords are investment buyers just waiting for the right time to sell their property for development. Others are looking for an annual return - but many are finding that they can do better someplace else.

Brosten said a 100-acre farm in the Flathead might be worth $1 million or more, but might only generate $5,000 in annual rent.

Alternatively, the landlord could sell the land here, buy six times as many acres in Fairview and generate 10 times the annual return.

"A lot of landlords here are starting to think they can make their money work better," he said.

Robin Street, whose grandparents homesteaded in the Flathead in 1883, discussed a second option regarding the future of the valley's farmland: The owners could retire and sell the land to benefit themselves and their heirs.

"Farmers have always been land-rich and cash-poor," said Street, who is one of the 13 applicants who submitted the Two Rivers growth policy amendment.

If approved, the amendment would change the land-use designation and allow higher-density development on 1,460 acres located north of Kalispell and Evergreen.

Six of the applicants own at least 100 acres. Of those, Street said, he's the youngest at 71. Their average age is 86.

"I sympathize with the people who oppose this [amendment]," he said, "but it's unrealistic to think that nothing would happen to this property. Doing nothing is not an option."

Lalum noted that the transition taking place in the Flathead isn't unique - it's happened before in many other place.

"Some communities have been very successful in dealing with growth," he said. "Others haven't. It's absolutely essential that we all become involved in setting a direction for the future. How we handle the transition from a rural to a more densely populated region will define the valley for generations to come."

Reporter Bill Spence may be reached at 758-4459 or by e-mail at bspence@dailyinterlake.com