Keenan-funded poll shows Burns in trouble with voters

A poll commissioned by Republican Senate candidate Bob Keenan finds that Montana voters have made up their minds about Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont. - most with an unfavorable view of the incumbent.

Keenan sees the results as evidence that Republican voters need to consider the electability of Burns in November.

But the Burns campaign asserts that the poll shows that the state senator from Bigfork is lagging far behind Burns among GOP voters.

The telephone survey of 600 Montana registered voters was conducted April 25-27 by Washington, D.C., pollster Ayres, McHenry and Associates. The partisan balance of survey respondents was 33 percent Republican, 24 percent Democrat and 41 percent independent.

The poll finds that Burns currently trails John Morrison, the state auditor and leading Democratic candidate, by 50 percent to 40 percent, with 11 percent undecided. He also trails Democrat Jon Tester, the Montana Senate president, 48 percent to 42 percent.

By contrast, Keenan trails Morrison 43 percent to 33 percent, with 24 percent undecided.

The poll also found that Burns has nearly "universal" name recognition in Montana, but he got "favorable" ratings from only 19 percent of respondents, compared with 34 percent giving him a "very unfavorable" rating.

The pollster asserts that Keenan has name recognition among 62 percent of poll respondents. And with a 23 percent to 8 percent favorable-to-unfavorable rating, Keenan "has far more potential to grow" support.

But Keenan is not well known in the sense that 38 percent of Republicans responding to the poll said they have never heard of him, and another 32 percent said they have "no opinion" of him, said Christopher Muste, a University of Montana political science professor who specializes in polling.

Keenan mainly is focusing on the poll's findings about Burns.

"He's hoping to use this as a wake-up call to Republicans, saying you may like Burns or you may know him, but the thing is, Burns is in trouble in the fall," said Muste, who has been a polling consulting for major news organizations, including The Washington Post.

Muste points to a polling result that reveals a major challenge for Keenan: Responding to a question that asked GOP voters for whom they would vote if the Republican primary election were held today, 62 percent said Burns while just 15 percent said Keenan.

"I have a steep climb to present myself to Republican voters that I am a viable candidate," Keenan said in an interview Monday.

Keenan said he commissioned the poll to find out where he stands in the race, and he insists that he had "no influence on the way the poll was done."

"It was the first $19,800 I spent," he said. "It was a discovery situation …. I want the Republican Party to know in June where it stands rather than wait until November to see where it stands."

Jason Klindt, a spokesman for the Burns campaign, said, "Bob Keenan got what he paid for: a poll that shows him in the best possible light. Our polling shows a different race, but the only poll that matters is the one that's taken on Election Day."

Keenan said that if the Burns campaign has different poll results, they should be released.

"There will be polls conducted by other organizations and I would be very surprised if they showed different results," he said.

Klindt said polling is not part of the Burns campaign strategy.

"The bottom line is that Conrad Burns is going to win the primary, and the real election campaign will start on June 7, and Bob Keenan's own poll points that out," he said, referring to Burns' substantial lead over Keenan with Republican voters.

Burns, he added, "is the only GOP candidate with the resources and proven grassroots organization necessary to defeat the onslaught of East Coast liberal money that will be used to try to buy this Senate seat."

Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com.