Will Flathead be the key to Senate race?

By JIM MANN

The Daily Inter Lake

So just how influential will Flathead County voters be in the coming U.S. Senate race, a race that has escalating national importance?

They could be very influential, according to people on both sides of the race between incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns, R-Mont., and Democratic challenger Jon Tester.

At a rally for Tester this week, Gov. Brian Schweitzer told the crowd the Senate race "will turn in the Flathead Valley."

He went on to say roughly the same thing in Missoula later the same day, but Schweitzer said Friday that he sincerely believes Flathead County will be decisive in a statewide race that is being watched across the country.

"The Senate race is going to be close, it's going to be 1 percent one way or the other," Schweitzer said from Great Falls. "And the Flathead is one of the most rapidly growing areas in the state, and it's one of the most rapidly changing areas."

Many newcomers to the Flathead Valley are Republicans from other states who have found that Montana Democrats don't resemble the liberal variety they are accustomed to opposing, Schweitzer said.

"Some of these folks, frankly, came from areas where Democrats don't look like they do in Montana," he said.

For that reason, he said, many immigrant Republicans will consider Montana Democrats.

"It seems to me there is more mobility in the electorate of the Flathead because of the changing population," he said.

In the June primary election, about 35 percent of Flathead voters cast ballots. Republican voters outnumbered Democrats by almost a 3-1 margin. The county has strongly leaned Republican in statewide races for more than a decade.

But for Schweitzer and other Tester supporters, it's largely a matter of shifting margins in the Flathead and other Republican counties.

"I'm not suggesting that Jon Tester is going to get 53 percent" in Flathead County, Schweitzer said. "I got 41 or 42 percent in the Flathead. If he gets 41 or 42 in the Flathead - 43 is even better - he's going to win the Senate race."

National Review's Byron York wrote Friday that the Montana Senate race has just recently become a surprisingly important contest, with current polls showing a 1-point difference between the candidates.

Burns was considered a lost cause for Republicans at one point, he wrote, "But now GOP control of the Senate appears to be hanging by a thread. And to nearly everyone's surprise, that thread might be Conrad Burns."

According to state Sen. Bob Keenan, R-Bigfork, Flathead County could be the "mother lode" for Burns - or not.

Keenan has some unique perspectives: He is chairman of the Flathead County Republican Central Committee, he was Burns' opponent in the primary election, and he is one of the more visible figures in the Burns re-election campaign.

Keenan said four of Montana's most populous counties lean Democratic while another four, including Flathead, lean Republican.

Because of Flathead County's population, which has grown from 75,000 to more than 83,000 in just five years, Keenan said it will be more influential in a statewide race than less-populous Ravalli County, which is considered to be "bedrock Republican."

"It ends up being the mother lode for Burns, and if it's not, it ends up being the mother lode for Tester," Keenan said. "So that puts Flathead County as the most influential decision-maker in a statewide race. I learned that in the primary election."

One lesson taken from the primary, he said, was a state GOP effort to boost voter turnout that was effective in driving up support for Burns.

Republicans and Democrats have seized on the importance of boosting voter turnout - it was the main theme at the Republican rally led by Vice President Dick Cheney at Majestic Valley Arena on Wednesday, and at a rally the next day in Kalispell led by Schweitzer, Tester and Montana's Democratic senator, Max Baucus.

Burns boasted on Wednesday that his campaign was making 11,000 calls a day to spur voter turnout. And Schweitzer urged Tester supporters to call friends and urge them to vote and to convince their Republican neighbors to cross party lines.

Voter turnout efforts appear to be having an effect: Flathead County's election office had issued more than 9,000 absentee ballots by Friday, compared to 8,000 in the 2004 presidential election.

"This is pretty unusual for a midterm election to have this many," said Monica Eisenzimer, the county's elections services manager. "We're wondering if we'll get to 10,000."

There's no telling, however, which political party has been more effective in driving the early voter turnout in Flathead County.

The Tester campaign was touting this week that statewide "internal polling" of early voters showed a strong lean toward Tester.

But Keenan said the Republican voter drive that proved to be effective in 2000 and 2004 shouldn't be underestimated. Keenan contends that the Republican campaign machine is "two to four years ahead of the Democrats" in terms of having the technological and organizational ability to back up a voter turnout strategy.

"It's a flat-out dead heat and it is all going to come down to turnout," Keenan said.

Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com