Western AA shaping up

Worst case scenario: Both Flathead squads will host playoff games

How important was the Bravettes' 66-57 victory over Helena Capital Thursday night?

Well, coupled with Capital's loss at Missoula Sentinel Friday night, if the Bravettes win in Butte today they would be Western AA champions.

As conference champs, the Bravettes would earn an automatic berth into the state tournament March 8-10 in Billings.

If the Bravettes lose to Butte today, there would be a three-way tie - and potentially a four-way tie - atop the Western AA standings.

Here's how the tiebreaker would sort itself out:

Butte and Missoula Big Sky are each a game behind the Bravettes in the standings. Big Sky plays Missoula Sentinel tonight. Victories by Big Sky and Butte would forge a four-way tie for the championship.

In the event of a three-way - or four-way - tie, Capital would win the championship because it swept Big Sky in their regular-season meetings. Butte and Flathead not only would split with each other (in the event of a Butte win over Flathead), but the two also split with Big Sky.

The No. 2 seed would go to Butte and the Bravettes would get the No. 3 seed.

Here's why:

In a tie with Butte, the tiebreaker goes all the way to each team's overall record against Class AA opponents because the teams either split with or swept each individual common conference opponent. Against Class AA opponents, Butte is 10-6; Flathead is 9-4. A loss to Butte puts those records at 11-6 for Butte (.647) and 9-5 for Flathead (.643).

Butte would win the tiebreaker over the Bravettes by four-thousandths of a percentage point.

In a tie with Big Sky, the tiebreaker is broken relatively right away. The Eagles and Bravettes split their regular-season meetings, which means the tiebreaker goes to each team's record against common conference opponents, from the top of the standing on down. At the top of the standings is Helena Capital. The Bravettes split with Capital. Big Sky was swept by Capital.

The Bravettes would win the tiebreaker over Big Sky and would host a home playoff game next week against either Helena or Missoula Hellgate. The Bravettes swept both of those opponents during the regular season.

On the boys side of the Western AA, both Butte and Helena Capital have clinched automatic berths into the combined boys and girls state tourney. Butte is already going to be No. 1. Capital is No. 2. Even if Flathead beats Butte today to forge a tie atop the standings, Butte swept Capital during the regular season.

The only thing up in the air is playoff seedings.

Flathead and Sentinel have already earned either the Nos. 3 or 4 seeds and will host playoff games. Their exact seeds and playoff opponents are still very much in the air.

If Flathead beats Butte today and ends up tying Sentinel with a 7-5 record, the Braves would be the No. 3 seed because they would have swept first-place Butte in their regular-season meetings. Sentinel and Flathead split their meetings and Sentinel also split with Flathead.

If Flathead loses to Butte and ties Sentinel with a 6-6 record, the Braves could take the No. 3 seed if Sentinel lost to Capital Friday night. If Sentinel beat Capital Friday night, then loses to Big Sky today to forge the tie, Sentinel would win the No. 3 seed because it swept Missoula Hellgate while Flathead split with Hellgate.

NOTE: If teams tie in conference records and split their head-to-head meetings, the tiebreaker goes to the team that has a better record against individual conference teams - looking at each opponent from the top of the standings on down. If a tie cannot be broken there, the team with the better overall record against Class AA teams wins.