Fire danger upgraded to high
By JIM MANN
The Daily Inter Lake
Hot, dry, windy weather has rapidly changed fire conditions in Northwest Montana, and there's nothing but more of the same in the forecast for days ahead.
Over the past two weeks or so, grasses and brush have been curing to a crackly brown, and heavier fuels have been drying for months.
The changes prompted the Flathead National Forest on Monday to upgrade the fire danger rating from "moderate" to "high."
"We're in the same boat," said Bob Sandman, who manages the Northwest Land Office in Kalispell for the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation.
Northwest Montana fire officials from various agencies will begin weekly meetings starting today to discuss fire restrictions in forested areas, said Denise Germann, public information officer for the Flathead National Forest.
Conditions in Northwest Montana are gradually following a trend that has creeped northward across the West, causing 41 large fires in 11 states as of Monday. So far, Montana has one large fire - the 3,800-acre Fool Creek Fire on the east side of the Bob Marshall Wilderness Complex.
"If we don't get any shots of precipitation, that could be kind of a precursor of things to come here," Sandman said, referring to large fires that have cropped up in Utah, Wyoming, Idaho and Washington.
But there is no rain on the horizon, or relief from the heat. The forecast for Kalispell calls for high temperatures of 85, 92, 97 and 100 degrees Tuesday through Friday.
"Right now, the only thing that is indicated is more hot and dry," said Mike Kreyenhagen, a meteorologist with the Northern Rockies Coordination Center in Missoula.
Weather patterns appear to be at least a couple of weeks ahead of historic summer weather trends for Western Montana, Kreyenhagen said.
"We're sure knocking on the door and it sure is early," said Kreyenhagen, noting that high-pressure weather systems have been established across the region and will likely remain largely unchanged.
"Really, we are out of our wet season now and we could be hot and dry through mid-September," he said. "I think we will probably have to deal with a hot, dry fire season for the next six weeks or so."
Below-average snowpacks and an early runoff have allowed for vegetation at higher elevations to dry out earlier, resulting in conditions that produced the Fool Creek Fire in the wilderness, Kreyenhagen said.
Sandman has a similar view. "After a couple more weeks of this weather, we certainly can see rapid fire spread on multiple slope aspects and at multiple elevations," he said.
But Sandman and Kreyenhagen note that there have been hot and dry fire seasons in the past with few lightning ignitions.
"We've seen this pattern before, where it's hot and dry but the moisture to produce thunderstorms just isn't there," Kreyenhagen said.
So far this year, human-caused fires have kept initial attack crews busy in the Flathead. To date, there have been 39 fire starts on the Flathead Forest, Glacier National Park and state and private lands, none growing larger than 3 acres. Only seven have been sparked by lightning, and 32 were caused by humans. Almost half of the fires, 18, have been detected since July 3.
Forest users need to acknowledge the growing fire danger, Sandman said.
"Things are changing rapidly, so let's be smart out there."
Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com