Valley grapples with growth

Economist Tony Prato doesn't have a crystal ball foretelling the Flathead's future. But he does have startling predictions about how soon the valley could run out of developable land.

A professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia, Prato and a team of other top economics spent four summers studying land-use policies and growth rates in the Flathead. The colleagues put together nine "alternative futures" for this area.

Bottom line: With a high-growth scenario, using baseline land-use policies, the Flathead would have a land shortage to the tune of about 27,000 acres by 2014 and would be 93,000 acres short by 2024. Moderately restrictive land-use policies would stave off a land shortage until 2024 and using highly restrictive land-use policies would keep land available beyond that.

IT'S FOOD for thought as the Flathead continues to grapple with growth.

The Daily Inter Lake's annual Changing Times special section in today's edition takes a look at a number of challenges and the side effects of unprecedented growth. In fact, our reporting staff turned out so many stories dealing with growth that we'll spend the coming week running stories about our changing times.

Facing the Flathead is the kind of growth that makes people gasp. More than 1,000 homes planned for Eagle's Crest south of Lakeside stand to double the size of the once-sleepy community along Flathead Lake's west shore.

Farmland north of Kalispell is being transformed into space for 466 homes in Silverbrook Estates. Not far from that, the Starling development promises 3,000 homes over the next two decades.

High-end homes aren't selling like hotcakes as they were a couple of years ago, but the market is still good, Realtors report. The trophy home selection is the best it's ever been, they say, and baby boomers with fists full of dollars are finding the Flathead.

BUT AS developers focus largely on housing that will bring in newcomers, the lack of affordable housing is driving more people into motels. Dallas and Katz Koepfli have been living in a single motel room with two teenage children for three months because their rental house was sold and they couldn't find other suitable housing.

Many simply can't afford the security deposit or first and last month's rent for an apartment up front. Samaritan House homeless shelter is full to capacity nearly every night.

But change has brought good things to the Flathead, too. Philanthropists have the means to provide communities like Whitefish with amenities that are the envy of other communities. Expanded commercial offerings keep shoppers at home. More entertainment options improve our quality of life.

In the coming week, we'll look at how social-service agencies are keeping up with the demand. North Valley Food Bank coordinator June Munski-Feenan predicted the need will grow and observed: "We're in a wealthy area, but it's two classes almost."

We'll probe the ever-increasing worker shortage plus rampant commercial growth on Kalispell's north side. We'll take a look at vanishing farms, an overcrowded jail and a plan to revitalize downtown Columbia Falls.

Change in the Flathead is so far-reaching and so pervasive it's difficult for either planners or economists to say exactly how all of this growth ultimately will play out.

As Prato contemplates "alternative futures" for the Flathead, he maintains that "better decisions are made with better research." It's good to have the facts as planning boards and city councils are faced with tough decisions about neighborhood plans, growth policies and subdivisions with hundreds and sometimes thousands of dwellings.

We leave you with a snapshot of the change upon us in 2007. What is the future of the Flathead? It may depend on how well we handle change today.

Features editor Lynnette Hintze may be reached at 758-4421 or by e-mail at lhintze@dailyinterlake.com