Clinton wins keep it interesting

Inter Lake editorial

John McCain put the finishing touches on his all-but-inevitable GOP nomination Tuesday night, but the real news in the race for the White House was being made in the Democratic campaign.

Defying the pundits once again, Hillary Clinton mounted a comeback and claimed two more big-state victories against front-runner Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.

Short of her primary victories in Texas and Ohio, Clinton may have been hard-pressed to make a case for staying in the race. She had lost in 12 straight smaller states, and had fallen behind in the delegate count.

But now she can argue that the momentum has shifted again and has swung back to her corner. If so, it's due in large part to Clinton's decision to raise questions about Obama's national security experience. Late deciders went overwhelmingly for Clinton in both Texas and Ohio.

Obama, of course, retains the crucial delegate lead, which makes Clinton's job very difficult going forward. But if you take a close look at the delegate numbers, you can also forget about the people telling you Obama has the nomination locked up. They are just talking about their hopes, not the facts.

After Tuesday's results (with about a dozen delegates still in doubt), Obama was calculated by AP to have a 1,566 to 1,462 lead over Clinton. That's impressive, but not conclusive - especially when you remember that you need 2,025 delegates to win the nomination.

The remaining contests will only decide 611 more delegates. If they were divided up proportionally based on current share, Obama would still not have enough votes to clinch the nomination. That means Democrats could very likely enter the national convention in September with no certainty about who will prevail. Both sides will fiercely contest for the superdelegates, and the lead may in fact switch back and forth.

Ultimately the "lost states" of Michigan and Florida could come back into play as well. Both of these large population states were shut out of the delegate process because they violated party rules on the timing of their elections. Residents of those states are now arguing that somehow their votes must count. Lawsuits are almost certain, and the outcome is anything but.

Indeed, if the race remains as tight as it is today, the longest of long shots may come to pass - Montana's June 3 primary for a scant 16 delegates may actually turn out to be relevant. Will we see Obama in Kalispell? Hillary in Whitefish?

Like we said, it's a long shot, but this year you just never know.