Flathead expects flooding

Snowpack puts area at high risk

The National Weather Service is projecting that there will be flooding in Western Montana because of a persistent mountain snowpack.

"We're going to have some high water up in the Flathead, and it's looking like it will be right at that flood level," hydrologist Ray Nickless said during a Thursday conference call.

He had similar forecasts for rivers and streams in Lincoln, Bitterroot and Missoula counties.

Mark Peck, director of Flathead County's Office of Emergency Services, said there is cause for concern.

"We'd be foolish if we weren't" concerned, said Peck, who participated in the conference call. "The potential is there. So we're going to have to keep a close eye on the weather. The good news is that with flooding, we have a lot of early warning capability."

Peck said people living in flood-prone areas should start preparing for that possibility.

The mountain snowpack above the Flathead Basin is at 126 percent of the 30-year average for this time of year, mainly because of cool weather and continuing snowfall in recent weeks.

"We're really not melting much of our snow," Nickless said, noting that streamflows across Western Montana have been below average. "And these numbers are continuing to go up each week, as we don't melt snow."

He cited another reason for the elevated flood potential: "May and June are our rainiest months."

The National Weather Service's streamflow forecasts factor in average precipitation and temperatures. Above-average temperatures and rain will increase the likelihood of flooding.

The flow forecast for the Middle Fork Flathead River projects high water to reach somewhere between 8.1 and 11.8 feet, with flood stage being 10 feet.

The North Fork Flathead River is projected to peak at 12.8 feet, just below the 13-foot flood stage.

The main Flathead River is projected to peak somewhere between 12 and 16.1 feet at the Columbia Falls river gauge. Flood stage is 14 feet.

Specific flow projections aren't available for the Whitefish and Stillwater rivers, but Nickless projects they will reach or exceed flood stage.

In Lincoln County, the Fisher River is projected to peak between 5.8 feet and 7.8 feet. The river's flood stage is 7.5 feet.

And the Yaak River, which often is prone to flooding, is expected to peak between 7.6 feet and 9.4 feet. The river's flood stage is 8 feet at Troy.

Peck said he probably will meet with Columbia Falls officials soon to discuss the potential for flooding, and his office is likely to put out public service announcements to warn residents in flood-prone areas.

Peck is scheduled to step down from his position by May 18, but he said his deputy, Cindy Mullaney, is capable of assuming his duties during the flood season.

National Weather Service meteorologist Peter Felsch said the forecast calls for warmer and drier weather over the weekend and into early next week, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s.

However, he said the six- to 10-day forecast and long-range forecasting call for lower-than-normal temperatures.

Reporter Jim Mann may be reached at 758-4407 or by e-mail at jmann@dailyinterlake.com