A tough job for Obama… or anyone!

Congratulations to President-elect Obama. He wanted the most thankless job in the world, and now he's got it. Indeed, I imagine President Bush is sincere in welcoming the Democrat to the White House, as it means he will at last be able to vacate it without cutting and running. Call it retreat with honor.

Obama is no doubt equally sincere in his intention to leave the country a better place, but nothing is a better teacher of the unlikelihood of that happening than recent history.

President Clinton was the last "great communicator" in the White House, and he certainly started with high hopes of creating a legacy of change and improvement, but after eight years in office, he left behind the stains of impeachment and broken promises. If we are being honest, it didn't really matter whether he was a Democrat or Republican, liberal or conservative - Clinton's presidency was enfeebled by his own considerable character flaws.

The current President Bush, oddly enough, has also weathered eight years in the White House, though he has been neither a great communicator nor a skilled politician, as Clinton most definitely was. But it can be stated somewhat authoritatively that after 9/11 President Bush gained a certain stature as commander-in-chief which he squandered in a series of feckless, if not reckless, decisions about how to wage the war on terror. Bush's flaws are quite different from those that plagued Clinton, but they most certainly exist.

Now, we have a president who is often likened to another Harvard-educated president, John F. Kennedy, for his likability, intelligence and charm. But let us not get carried away in thinking that President Obama is on a glide path to historic success. Remember two things in particular: First, President Kennedy was not as well liked in life as he was in death, and second, times have changed since the Kennedy era of the early 1960s. If President Kennedy had been president in the last decade or two, he would very likely have faced scandal a la Clinton, or a media drubbing a la G.W. Bush, for his shenanigans and skulduggery.

Some people, of course, don't believe Barack Obama has any character flaws, so they are confident the future is rosy. As Ernest Hemingway said in an entirely different context, "Isn't it pretty to think so?" But also - let's be honest - isn't it entirely unrealistic?

Ultimately, President Obama faces an uncomfortable choice - either he can be honest to himself and govern as he has lived (as a proponent of radical ideas and social change) or he can attempt to live up to his image as candidate (and try to please everyone). In either case, he will make enemies - either among his true believers or among those who supported him without really knowing him.

These simply are not easy times to lead, and it may be just as hard for Obama to remain popular as it was for George Bush, although a high popularity rating does not really tell us anything meaningful about success in the White House. Both Lincoln and Truman had low approval ratings while in office (although Lincoln did manage to get re-elected) but are now held in high esteem by historians.

What will probably be the deciding factors in Obama's popularity in one year will be how he handles two issues - the economy and the war on terror, including Iraq, Afghanistan and much more. If Obama really wants to be a non-partisan president, both of those challenges ought to give him plenty of opportunity. Clearly, national security should be non-partisan, and the economy already is.

As recent months have demonstrated, the economy doesn't care who is president - it cares about results. And the results under President Obama will be about the same as they were under Presidents Clinton and Bush (junior and senior). Namely, jobs will continue to be lost as America's manufacturing base virtually disappears; the standard of living will generally decline as cheap political bromides wear off and reality sets in; and the government will refuse to scale back its giveaways and thus continue to run up huge new deficits.

And though withdrawing from the battlefield in Iraq may increase President Obama's popularity in the short-term, it will also embolden our enemies and almost certainly invite new attacks. Vice President Biden already told us that foreign leaders will test the new president, and we have no reason to doubt it since Biden's expertise in foreign policy has been promoted as his main qualification for being on the ticket. Whether Obama will handle his crises with as fortuitous a result as JFK achieved in Berlin and Cuba remains to be seen.

In any case, although Bush will remain a scapegoat in the foreseeable future, Obama can expect eventually to get credit or blame for anything that happens in the next four years. It is, after all, highly unlikely that the Democratic Congress will challenge him over anything important, so for good or bad, President Obama's agenda will shape this nation's destiny for years to come in ways we cannot yet know.

God bless America, and good luck, Sen. Obama. You will need it.

. Frank Miele is managing editor of the Daily Inter Lake and writes a weekly column. E-mail responses may be sent to edit@dailyinterlake.com