Jobless rate hits record 14.1 percent
Flathead County’s unemployment rate jumped to an all-time high in January when it reached 14.1 percent, compared to 12.1 percent in December 2010.
January’s percentage of unemployed workers broke the previous highest monthly unemployment rate of 13.8 percent in March 2010. That’s according to the Montana Department of Labor and Industry, which has been keeping records of jobless numbers since 1990.
The January numbers mean the fourth straight month of double-digit unemployment for Flathead County. The last time the rate was below 10 percent was in September 2010.
Surrounding counties also saw their jobless numbers climb in January. Sanders County bumped up to 20.3 percent from 17.8 percent in December; Lincoln increased from 18 to 20.2 percent; and Lake County hit 13.4 percent, up from 11 percent the previous month.
Flathead’s jobless percentage translates into 6,040 unemployed workers in the county; that’s up from 5,197 in December.
While the numbers seem dismal, they’re not cause for despair, said Patrick Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana. And they’re not the best indicator of what’s truly happening in individual counties, he said.
“We don’t spend a lot of time with county unemployment rates because they tend to fluctuate for noneconomic reasons,” Barkey said.
Barkey said jobless numbers are based in part on “thin data” from surveys conducted nationwide. In the statistical model used to conduct those unemployment surveys, a very small fraction of people are surveyed and in a rural state like Montana, only 300 respondents statewide are used in the calculations.
“It’s an OK estimate, but in terms of data, I’m not sure” it’s the most meaningful reflection of local job markets, Barkey said. “I’m not disparaging those doing the survey, it’s just doggone tough” with the statistical model used.
Barkey said there are other reasons why he doesn’t read too much into jobless numbers.
Sometimes when a labor market starts to improve, more people begin looking for work again, including those who had quit looking for jobs all together, he said. The result is that it may seem like there are more unemployed people because they tap into the system again.
“It tends to make things move around,” Barkey said.
The winter season also drives jobless numbers up, and the January rate reflects post-Christmas layoffs, he said.
County unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted.
The statewide unadjusted unemployment rate was 8.7 percent, up from 7.4 percent in December. The seasonally adjusted statewide rate was 7.5 percent in January, up from 7.4 percent a month earlier.
Eastern Montana continues to enjoy some of the state’s lowest unemployment rates, with oil-rich Richland County at 3.2 percent in January, and Fallon County at 3 percent.
Barkey continues to stand by his prediction that Flathead County’s economy is recovering, albeit slowly. He said he believes 2011 will be the year “when we see some improvement” in the economy.
“Flathead County is just in a bigger hole,” he said. “Even with some growth, it won’t feel like we’re back to where we were.”
Features editor Lynnette Hintze may be reached at 758-4421 or by e-mail at lhintze@dailyinterlake.com.