Bullock to appoint replacement if Baucus leaves

HELENA — It will be up to Gov. Steve Bullock to appoint a replacement to fill out U.S. Sen. Max Baucus’ term if the six-term Democratic senator steps down to become the next ambassador to China.

How that appointment might affect next year’s election for that seat is already the subject of speculation in Montana political circles: Would the Democratic governor move to give his party an advantage in the 2014 elections or would he name a caretaker to the seat to avoid the potential backlash of a partisan pick?

Baucus, who had previously announced he would not be seeking re-election next year, is expected to be nominated by President Barack Obama as the next ambassador to China, according to Democratic officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the nomination publicly before a formal announcement.

If the longtime Montana Democrat leaves his Senate seat early to take the post, the governor will appoint someone to serve the remainder of Baucus’ term, which runs until January 2015.

Bullock Chief of Staff Kevin O’Brien declined to comment Wednesday on a possible appointment.  

Bullock’s lieutenant governor, John Walsh, and former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger are running for the Democratic nomination for Baucus’ seat. Freshman U.S. Rep. Steve Daines is the early frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

Bullock already has endorsed Walsh in the nascent 2014 election campaign.

U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., declined to weigh in on what he thinks Bullock should do.

“That really is Gov. Bullock’s call,” Tester said Thursday. “He’s a thoughtful guy and I’m sure he’ll put in the time needed to make that decision.”

David Parker, a political analyst at Montana State University, said that endorsement may leave Bullock with little choice but to appoint Walsh.

Having Walsh in place as the incumbent senator may help Democrats somewhat in their bid to keep the seat next year, but it also could cause backlash among voters in the general election who would view the move as overly political, Parker said.

Instead, Bullock could appoint a respected statesman to be the “caretaker” of the seat until the election, Parker said.

“A caretaker might be the safest bet,” Parker said. “Given the fact that the governor has announced his support for John Walsh, it would be hard for him not to appoint him. He’s stuck between a rock and a hard place.”

Parker said someone like former U.S. Rep. Pat Williams, D-Montana, may fit the bill.

Williams said Wednesday that he agrees with Parker, and that he would consider accepting an appointment if it were offered. While appointing Walsh could give the Democrats a jump on the 2014 campaign, it would be best for Montana to appoint somebody with previous congressional experience who would not run for election, he said.

Williams said he was the only person he knows who meets the criteria.

“I might be interested, although I might not. I don’t know if I’d want to go back to Washington for just a few months,” Williams said.

Montana Republican Party Executive Director Bowen Greenwood said in a statement that any appointment should be open, transparent and fair.

A qualified individual should be the focus of selecting a replacement, not “jumpstarting a political campaign,” Greenwood said.