2014 Montana politics could be demolition derby
Montana could be in the national spotlight in 2014 as Republicans try to re-take the majority in the U.S. Senate, and Democrats look to make in-roads in the House.
It looks like the GOP may have a significant advantage when Montana voters choose a new senator to replace Max Baucus, who is retiring after 36 years in the Senate, and a likely advantage in the race for Montana’s sole House seat as well.
Democratic hopes for holding on to Baucus’ seat suffered a serious setback when former Gov. Brian Schweitzer declined to give up his decidedly Montana lifestyle for the metropolitan ways of Washington, D.C. It probably didn’t help when Schweitzer learned he couldn’t bring his beloved ranch dog Jag onto the Senate floor, but that’s another story.
With Baucus and Schweitzer out of the picture, the only heavyweight left deciding whether to jump into the Senate race is Rep. Steve Daines. But that first-term Bozeman Republican can really only be considered a light heavyweight at best, and maybe more of a super middleweight.
Nonetheless, compared to the rest of the field, he is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, and even though he hasn’t tipped his hand on whether he will try to jump to the Senate, pretty much everyone in the state is already making plans that he will.
Daines’ presence in the Senate race would probably result in fewer untested candidates trying the waters, and instead eyeing the House race, where both sides are likely to field crowded slates of primary candidates and an attractive newcomer could have a realistic chance of catching fire.
I suppose some of the candidates considering runs in the House and Senate races would resent being called newcomers. Some of them are hauling around pretty impressive resumes, but their statewide recognition is not so great, up to and including Democratic Lt. Gov. John Walsh, a distinguished military man but a political neophyte.
Also in the mix for the Senate seat on the Democratic side are Wilsall rancher, lawyer, banker and teacher Dirk Adams (yes, they are all one man) and state Supreme Court Justice Brian Morris. Things are even more complicated among the Republicans, with Missoula mortgage consultant Champ Edmunds (another military man, with a 10-year career in the Navy) and former gubernatorial candidate Corey Stapleton already declared candidates and Attorney General Tim Fox, former U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg and state Sen. Matt Rosendale all being talked about as possible candidates, especially if Daines doesn’t run.
If Daines does run for Senate, then a huge chunk of the action moves down to the House race, where Edmunds, Stapleton and Rosendale will then compete for the spotlight with two Flathead politicians — Jon Sonju and Ryan Zinke, both of whom ran for lieutenant governor in 2012. It should be noted that Zinke, Stapleton and probably a bunch of these other candidates also have military backgrounds. This is Montana, and putting your life on the line for your country is still a huge plus here.
Other Democrats who are either declared or assumed candidates for the House race include state Rep. Amanda Curtis, a Butte High School teacher, and John Lewis, a former congressional aide.
If I missed anyone, I apologize, but trust me I am not intrepid enough to handicap either the Senate or House races in Montana quite yet, other than to say: Hang on — it promises to be quite a ride! It may even rival the demolition derby they run down at the fairgrounds!
For political junkies, 2014 is going to be a year to remember in Montana.