Democrats say they have good chance for gains in Legislature, but GOP thinks otherwise

HELENA — In Western Montana’s sprawling House District 92, Democratic candidate Dave Strohmaier says he’s knocked on doors from East Missoula to Condon, halfway up the Seeley-Swan Valley.

“I’ve run into people in Condon and Seeley Lake who say I’m the first candidate they’ve seen on their door in 30 years,” he said last week. “We’re relying on good, old-fashioned shoe leather.”

And across the state in the urban byways of Billings’ Senate District 24, Republican Tonya Shellnutt says she’s leaving no stone unturned.

“We’ve been out on the doors, meeting the people ... and letting people know who I am,” she says. “I just believe you have to go out there, you have to be authentic and, at the end of the day, that’s what matters.”

Strohmaier and Shellnutt don’t have much in common politically, but they’re both attempting the same thing: Trying to win a legislative seat currently held by the opposing political party, as Democrats and Republicans square off in their biennial battle for party control of the Montana Legislature.

Republicans hold a 29-21 edge in the state Senate and a 61-39 advantage in the House and have had majorities in both houses since 2011 and for seven of the last 10 legislatures.

The GOP is favored to maintain those majorities again this year, in part because of a political landscape tilted in their favor. Democratic President Barack Obama’s approval ratings are low, and Republican candidates — from Congress to state legislative races — are running against his policies.

But Montana Democrats are hoping they can buck that trend in legislative races Nov. 4, saying they have a fighting chance to narrow the gap at the state Legislature, particularly in the Senate.

They say they’ve fielded many hardworking, pragmatic candidates who can appeal to voters on pocketbook issues like education, health care and jobs.

“It’s not as linked to (national issues) because it’s really about these tiny districts, where people actually know the people running,” says Lauren Caldwell, director of the Montana Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. “That’s the beauty of local politics in states like Montana.”

Caldwell says Democrats also have an advantage because 2014 is the first year of newly drawn districts, creating districts with new voters open to a different candidate.

“The fact that some of these districts are brand new means they are open to whoever works the hardest,” she says. “We think the person who is out there making themselves available to voters will win the district.”

GOP officials, however, scoff at the notion that Democrats will gain ground at the Montana Legislature this election, saying Republicans are poised to pad their majorities.

“We have such high-quality candidates, and the issues that Montanans care about match up so well with what Republicans are running on that this is going to be a wonderful year for our legislative candidates,” says Bowen Greenwood, executive director of the state Republican Party.

Greenwood says Montanans want good jobs, and Republicans are campaigning on their support for natural resource jobs in the oil, gas, coal and timber industries.

Control of Montana’s Senate likely will hinge on the outcome of a half-dozen key races in Billings, Helena, Bozeman, Great Falls and the Hi-Line.

If Democrats win four Republican-held seats in swing districts and don’t lose any of their own seats, they’d forge a 25-25 tie, giving them the right to choose the body’s top leadership posts. In a tie, majority control goes to the party of the governor, who’s a Democrat.

Senate District 24 in north-central Billings, however, is perhaps the top-targeted Senate seat held by Democrats, where Republicans think they can pick up a seat.

Shellnutt, who’s been a vocal critic of new Common Core education standards, is running against Democratic state Rep. Mary McNally, a business professor at Montana State University Billings. They’re vying for an open seat held by departing Democratic Sen. Kendall Van Dyk, who won the seat by a mere four votes in 2010.

McNally, a two-term state representative, says she’s been hitting the doors hard since June, dropping literature and doing mailings, trying to acquaint herself with voters in the district.

“I have a record from the last four years, so I talk about some of the issues I feel strongly about,” she says.

McNally says she talks about her support of public education, her commitment to keeping college affordable and her opposition to transferring federal lands to state control. She also says while the Common Core standards could be “tweaked,” she supports them.

Shellnutt, who, with her husband owns a Billings flooring business, says she emphasizes “fiscal responsibility” for government, her endorsement by the National Rifle Association and the need for government to reduce regulations that hinder business.

She also says she proudly identifies herself as the Republican in the race: “You either like what I have to offer or you don’t. You have two very distinct choices in this race. What you see is what you get with me.”

Republicans are in better shape in the House, where, at worst, they’re expected to maintain a slightly smaller majority.

Strohmaier and fellow Democrats hope they can shrink the margin by out-campaigning Republicans in some key districts.

Strohmaier is challenging Rep. David “Doc” Moore, a moderate Republican who won an open seat in 2012 by only 45 votes.

The newly drawn district is a bit different, but still has plenty of rural voters in eastern Missoula County. Moore, a retired auto mechanic, said he thinks his pragmatic approach appeals more to those voters than Strohmaier’s ties to “progressive policy.”

Moore also says he’s reminding voters that if he wins, he’ll likely be in the majority, giving district voters a better voice at the 2015 Legislature.

“If people take five minutes to just compare us, I think there is an obvious difference,” he says.

Strohmaier, a former Missoula City councilman who ran unsuccessfully for Congress in 2012, says he’s been talking about the benefits of expanding Medicaid coverage to low-income Montanans and maintaining access to public lands.

He also said he’s contacting as many voters as possible and reminding them that in a race like this one, it could be close and that every vote maters.

“I’ve been running one of the more aggressive legislative campaign races in the state, because I think so much is at stake in terms of gaining seats back in the House,” he says.

Distributed by MCT Information Services