AA: Playoff picture will be set after tonight

When Glacier walks on the field at Legends Stadium against Flathead, it will be playing for not only bragging rights but for the chance to hold the top playoff seed in Class AA football for the second time in three years.

The formula for the Wolfpack (9-0) is simple: win and get the top seed. The only undefeated team left in the class, Glacier’s path is simple.

Things get more interesting for the other seeds, and even more complicated should Flathead or any other underdog pull an upset this weekend and throw a wrench in the gears.

The Braves (3-6) can’t make the eighth seed, eliminated from any scenario with a loss to Missoula Sentinel last week.

However, Flathead can send a potential championship game out of town with a win over Glacier tonight, taking not only the crosstown title but the top seed from the Wolfpack. A Glacier loss, combined with a win by Helena High (8-1) over Helena Capital (1-8), would throw the race for the top seed to a tiebreaker. Because the Wolfpack and Bengals don’t play this season, the seed would be decided on strength of schedule, which goes handily to Helena thanks to a win over Billings Skyview (6-3).

That’s just one of a handful of upsets that could make next week look dramatically different than if things play to chalk.

The top three seeds are in place, with Glacier or Helena taking the first and second seed and Great Falls C.M. Russell (7-2) the third, regardless of the Rustlers result today against Great Falls High (2-7).

Three teams — Senior, Skyview and Big Sky — are vying to grab the fourth seed and the final home game of the opening round.

The Billings schools have the advantage for the fourth seed, and the winner of today’s game between Skyview and Senior (6-3), will likely play a home playoff game. Should Big Sky (6-3) win against Billings West (4-5), Senior holds a head-to-head tiebreaker and Skyview holds a strength of schedule advantage.

Big Sky would own the fifth seed with a win, and would only fall to the sixth with a loss.

Bozeman (5-5) is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs despite a 34-21 loss to Butte (4-6) on Thursday. Whether the defending champs get the seventh or eight seed depends on the Big Sky-West result.

The eight seed is in play between West and Butte. The Golden Bears lost to the Bulldogs 24-21 earlier this season, but would still grab a tiebreaker should Sentinel (3-6) beat Hellgate (0-9) and tie for the eighth seed. West holds a stronger strength of schedule than potential 4-6 bedfellows Butte, Sentinel and Flathead. Should either Sentinel or Flathead win today, it will guarantee West a trip to the playoffs.

That’s all unless rivalry games don’t go to chalk. Should CMR lose to Great Falls or Helena lose to Capital (1-9), things could look completely different.

But, that’s why they play the games.