Analyst offers grim fire forecast
With two U.S. senators sitting in the front row and a host of fires burning in the nearby forests, all ears Sunday evening at the Thompson Fire Complex camp in West Glacier were on David Greathouse.
Greathouse is a fire analyst and he said the next few days could be trying for firefighters. At issue are the nearly 600-acre Sheep Fire, growling about a mile south of the small mountain town of Essex and another small fire, the Granite Fire.
The 247-acre Granite Fire has the potential to gain a ridge in the Great Bear Wilderness and threaten the U.S. 2 corridor in the coming days near Snowslip a few miles east of Essex.
“It’s setting itself for some big gains,” Greathouse said of the Granite Fire.
The weather this week isn’t expected to help. After a respite of rain and lower temperatures Friday and Saturday, things were warming back up on the line with warm weather and brisk southwest winds.
The heat is expected to last throughout the week, with the potential for dry thunderstorms by Thursday and Friday, which come with high winds, little if any rain and more lightning.
U.S. 2 was closed last Thursday and Friday near the Sheep Fire because of concerns about the blaze. It has since reopened with pilot cars through the fire area.
The winds could help drive the Sheep Fire away from Essex but could help the Granite Fire top a backcountry ridge in the No Name and Granite Creek drainages that could take it much closer to the highway.
The 2015 fire season is above the 97th percentile for severity, Greathouse, noted, pointing to a graph with a jagged line. The green line was the 2015 fire season to date, with a ragged red line slightly above it showing benchmarks set primarily in 2003, another severe fire year.
Most fire seasons end with a big rain or snow, usually in August or September, but this year is shaping up to be different, Greathouse said.
“It’s so dry, it will take more than one season-ending event,” he said. “In my opinion [the fire season] will fade away. We’re in it for the long haul.”
Sitting in the front row listening to the grim news were Glacier Park Superintendent Jeff Mow, U.S. Sens. Jon Tester and Steve Daines and Flathead National Forest Supervisor Chip Weber.
Both Daines and Tester afterward thanked the firefighters at the Thompson camp for their efforts. They noted that no structure was worth a life and implored crews to be safe out there.
The team has two heavy helicopters to drop water and retardant on the fires. To date, they have dropped about 250,000 gallons of water and 20,000 gallons of retardant on the Sheep Fire. Even so, the fire has the potential to jump Sheep Creek and burn up the other hillside.
“Then it’s off to the races,” Greathouse warned.