Flathead economic forecast improves

Economic indicators are improving for Flathead County, experts said during the 10th Annual Economic Update presentation Thursday in Kalispell.

“When we look at the changes of Flathead economy since February, we have slightly revised our forecast upward for economic performance,” said Paul Polzin, director emeritus of the University of Montana Bureau of Business and Economic Research. “We were relatively optimistic in February. We’re more optimistic now.”

Polzin predicted that the construction industry will return to production levels that the Flathead area hasn’t seen since 2008.

“The peak was in 2007, while 2008 was much more moderate,” he said. “At least we’re back to that.”

The other piece of good news was a strong nonresident travel year for the Flathead area, despite a growing exchange disparity between the U.S. and Canadian dollars.

High-tech manufacturing was another strong point of the Flathead economy.

Thursday’s session was the first of a seven-city tour across Montana examining if economic performance had measured up to forecasts in the last six months. About 200 people attended the Kalispell gathering.

The headline presentation was “Women at Work” by Barbara Wagner, chief economist for the Montana Department of Labor.

“The biggest issue is that Montana is facing a worker shortage,” Wagner said. “It’s going to be a challenge for us. The supply will naturally increase, but not enough. We still have to reach outside the existing population of workers and try to target some people to come in.”

Wagner said women are a major percentage of the new additional workforce.

Research showed that twice as many women as men work part-time, year-round jobs. Wagner’s takeaway is that more women would participate in the full-time work force with greater pay opportunities, something that would entice workers from either gender.

According to Wagner’s research, women who work full-time earn 67.5 percent of the average pay men make in Montana. Nationally, that number is 70.6 percent.

Among the causes of the wage gap are women’s choices of occupation and industry. Nationwide, women working in offices and administrative support total 14 million, almost twice as many as the next-highest occupation. Wagner said this is a low-wage job choice in which women dominate the employment.

Other causes for the wage gap include age, race, education, experience and time out of the workforce for family care.

“The wage gap is improving, but some people believe it’s slowed down in recent years,” Wagner said. “Cultural changes have been the biggest factor, which takes longer than moving capital toward regular wage positions.”

Cultural factors include subconscious hiring decisions, where employers envision candidates as “someone like me” or who “look like the type.”

Wagner concluded that cultural stereotypes have a bigger impact than sexism and that cultural changes toward equal pay and employment move more slowly than putting money toward better wage opportunities.

Charlene Rich, senior marketing specialist for Northern Broadcasting Systems, said the information in Wagner’s presentation on the gender wage gap is an already common understanding, now backed with research.

“I thought the data was close to what I expected,” she said after the presentations. “It’s good to have the research-backed data that shows somewhat why it’s happening.”

Pat Barkey, director of the UM research bureau, talked about the “Post Commodity Boom Economy” with dropping commodity prices in markets such as oil, lumber, copper and barley.

In the Montana oil industry, there are fewer rigs working today but they are more efficient than previous years, and prices have dropped from $110 a barrel to $59. It’s too early, he said, to see if the oil-price decline is here to stay.

Barkey said the state closed 2014 with good economic momentum and Bozeman continues to lead in economic growth. Wage growth in Flathead County was fifth in the state with an increase of just over $40 million.

Gallatin County had a nearly $100 million jump in wages.

Reporter Seaborn Larson may be reached at 758-4441 or by email at slarson@dailyinterlake.com.