Dry weather sends fire danger upward

With little to no precipitation in the forecast, fire danger in Western Montana is approaching record levels for this time of year, according to state and federal trackers.

“Dryness in the woods right now is much more typical of August than where we are right now in mid-June,” said Jeremy Pris, the fire program manager at the state Department of Natural Resources Kalispell office.

“We’re really pushing our firefighters to realize that it’s drier right now than it has been for the last two summers as a whole.”

A report from the Northern Rockies Coordination Center, which tracks wildfire potential for the U.S. Forest Service, projects little to no precipitation in the next two weeks, noting that Northwest Montana is on pace to have the driest May-June period on record.

Kalispell has received only 0.6 inches of rain this month, compared with an average 1.5 inches for this point in June. Overall, the area is 1.75 inches below average for precipitation this year, according to the National Weather Service. Last month was the driest May on record for the valley and high temperatures were above average every day last week, including three days that either broke or tied one-day heat records.

Ali Ulwelling, a fire prevention specialist at the state’s office in Kalispell, said her biggest concern is the energy release component, a measure of how hot a fire could burn and reflecting how dry forest fuels are.

 The federal coordination center predicts that index to hit levels in the 90th percentile by July 4, and potentially soar as high as the 97th percentile.

Pris said new firefighters will have finished their training by Independence Day, and at that point he will start shifting schedules and increasing availability of his personnel.

“The Fourth of July weekend is our next big concern, with fireworks,” he added.

This weekend, a dry cold front is expected to sweep across the Idaho Panhandle, bringing wind and more rapid drying of fuels. Moving into next week, another weather system could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to the area but little to no precipitation.

By next Friday, a high-pressure system is forecast to bring hot weather from the Southwest into the area, with temperatures in Kalispell potentially nearing 100 degrees.

With thousands of forest acres increasingly considered vulnerable to fire this summer, Montana is distressed enough to have been included in a June 12 drought conversation involving President Barack Obama and the governors of six western states.

“It’s not looking good,” Montana Direct Protection Fire Coordinator Harold Gemmell said after the Governor’s Drought and Water Supply Advisory Committee met on Thursday.

Gemmell said he’s particularly concerned about the far northwest corner of the state, which received just 20 percent of its typical snowpack this year.

The committee concluded that snowpack melted a month ahead of schedule and worsened the slight drought conditions persisting in Western Montana.

Lucas Zukiewicz, a U.S. Department of Agriculture water supply specialist, said peak river levels have come and gone, and Montana will rely on summer precipitation to head off any worsening conditions.

“Moving forward, we’re really going to have to see a major turn for there to be any improvement,” Zukiewicz said. “I can’t talk about snow any more, it makes me really sad.”

The Associated Press contributed to this report.