Hot and dry... and it's going to get worse

With the Flathead Valley continuing to break records for heat and a lack of precipitation, Flathead County, Glacier National Park and the Flathead National Forest bumped the fire danger up to “high” on Tuesday.

It’s no wonder: In addition to having had the driest May on record this year, the Flathead Valley is in the middle of its longest rainless streak for the month of June, with 19 days since the last precipitation event. The previous record was set in June 1955 with 15 straight days without a drop of rain.

Barring a dramatic, unforeseen precipitation event in the next week, Kalispell also will break the record for the driest April-June period on record.

The valley currently has received just 20 percent of normal precipitation for that time frame this year.

And it’s about to get worse: The National Weather Service is forecasting scorching and potentially record-breaking temperatures heading into next week.

Saturday through Tuesday are all forecast to be record-breakers and could potentially deliver the hottest June on record. As of Monday, it’s already the fifth-hottest June since 1899.

How hot will it get? 98 degrees on Saturday, 102 on Sunday and Monday and 100 on Tuesday, according to the Weather Service.

The most times Kalispell hit 90 degrees in June was seven in 1974, and that number is anticipated to hit eight this year.

Then there are dwindling streamflows.

Speaking during a regional weather teleconference Tuesday, Weather Service hydrologist Ray Nickless painted a gloomy picture of current flow conditions.

The Flathead River at Columbia Falls has never been as low at this point in the year as it is right now. The same goes for Prospect Creek and the St. Regis River. The Yaak River is hovering just above the record low for this time of the year and the Fisher River is expected to dip below that point in the coming days.

“When you don’t get any rain in the months of May and June — our wettest times of the year — then you’re really in a bad situation,” Nickless said.

Early snowmelt at the high elevations has left little to no snowpack in the Flathead River drainage and the portion of the Kootenai River drainage that lies below the Canadian border. The 24 monitoring sites that track high-elevation snow in the two basins all currently register zero.

Northwest Montana is currently in a “moderate drought” and meteorologist Bob Nestor said that’s also likely to worsen.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if, with these high temperatures and very dry conditions, that these areas expand over the next few weeks,” he said, referring to adjacent “severe drought” regions in the Idaho Panhandle and Eastern Washington.

Nestor added that the third week in June historically marks the end of the wet season. The monthly averages for the next two months drop off sharply, with 1.12 inches in July and 1.1 inches in August.

He said that many people in Western Montana likely remember 2007 as being severely hot and dry this time of year, but the expected upcoming weather could easily top that.

The fire forecast isn’t looking too rosy, either.

Rick Connell, the fire management officer for the Flathead National Forest, said he spoke with representatives from state and local agencies Tuesday and the group decided to raise the fire danger from “moderate” to “high,” an unusual step for this time of year. It comes a day after Missoula County bumped its danger level to “very high.”

“Normally, we’re green and we’re wet this time of year, so starts are not a problem,” Connell said. “But this year, if you go out there and you’re walking around the woods, the litter — small stuff and pine needles — is dry and ignitable.”

On top of fuel dryness levels and other metrics, human causes also factor into the fire danger level.

Connell said that extra diligence by campers and others recreating in dry or forested areas can help prevent fire restrictions being put in place in the future. One of the reasons for Tuesday’s category switch was the number of human-caused fires over the past few weeks.

Connell added that given the forecast, the upcoming Fourth of July weekend is especially concerning, and fire crews will be working late into the evening to stay on top of any potential fireworks-related starts.

“It’s not a normal weekend where you have people up there camping. You’re giving them an ignition device,” he said.

The situation also prompted him to apply for federal aid, called severity funding, to cover the anticipated long hours for firefighters and dispatchers over the coming months. If approved, Connell said it would come in time for the Fourth of July.

At the state level, regional fire program manager Jeremy Pris said he is adjusting his firefighters’ hours as well, starting workdays later to enable them to work later into the evening and fully staffing engines and crews every day rather than just five days per week.

“Typically it’s around the Fourth of July when we go to that schedule,” he said.

Nestor noted in the Weather Service’s presentation that national resources could get stretched thin early on, with major fires already flaring up along the West Coast.

“There’s a very high potential that many large fires will break out in Oregon and Washington,” Nestor said. “Firefighting resources are going to be stressed considerably over the next week with this dry spell coming up.”

Reporter Samuel Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at swilson@dailyinterlake.com.