Mild February much warmer than normal

It hasn’t been a record-breaker, but February 2016 averaged more than 6 degrees above normal, displaced winter sporting events and left little remaining snowcover in Western Montana’s low elevations.

With Leap Day excluded, February temperatures averaged 33.4 degrees, compared with a 30-year average of 26.6 degrees in February.

The warmest February on record was in 1925 with an average of 35.8 degrees.

No single-day temperature records were broken, but the high of 54 degrees on Feb. 26 was one degree short of tying the existing record.

Precipitation was only slightly below normal but fell mostly as rain in the valley. Kalispell received 2.5 inches of snow last month, compared with an average 8.2 inches.

No measurable snow has fallen on the valley floor since Feb. 4.

However, Montana’s high-elevation snowpack west of the Continental Divide remains close to the norm at most locations.

As of Monday morning, the Flathead and Kootenai river basins had 93 percent and 90 percent of their typical high-elevation snow, respectively.

Forecasters are expecting a wetter start to this spring than last year.

“The Climate Prediction Center is showing a pretty wet signal for March,” Stefanie Henry, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service Missoula office said Monday. “Within the next two weeks we could start seeing some higher-than-normal precipitation averages.”

That moisture will accompany more above-average temperatures, she said, likely meaning more rain falling in the valleys and lower elevations. Upper elevations would likely get a shot of snow, however.

The most recent El Nino models still show the global weather system slowing down as spring progresses, Henry added.

El Nino typically brings warmer, drier-than-average weather to the Northern Rockies during winter and spring, with less of a regional impact during the summer.

By this fall, Henry said, many of the climate models predict a weak to neutral El Nino system.

That could precede a cold, wet La Nina weather system, which often follows El Nino events.

“Right now a lot [of the models] are showing La Nina, but with low certainty,” Henry said.

The most recent La Nina event brought record snows and low temperatures to the region in the winter of 2010-11 and was followed by the coldest spring in Kalispell since 1975.

Reporter Sam Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at swilson@dailyinterlake.com.