Montana's House seat goes quiet as Zinke awaits vote

While Montana’s sole U.S. House representative awaits a full Senate confirmation vote deciding whether he’ll be the next secretary of the Department of the Interior, his voting record has dropped off a ledge. Depending on if and when Rep. Ryan Zinke is confirmed, Montanans could be waiting until summer to have a member in the U.S. House speaking for the state again.

Before this year, Zinke missed 36 House votes out of 1,325 since being elected to the position in 2015. But since January — after President Donald Trump tapped Zinke to serve in his Cabinet — Zinke has missed 80 of the 99 votes before the House.

Jeremy Johnson, a Carroll College political science professor, said it’s common for members of Congress to “psychologically move on” when their time is ending in the House.

“It sounds like Ryan Zinke is going to be confirmed and he’s moving on from his duties of the House,” Johnson said.

Zinke’s staff did not respond to requests for an interview to discuss his recent voting record.

Johnson said there shouldn’t be any legal requirements blocking Zinke from voting during the wait.

“My guess is, Zinke thought he would be confirmed by now,” he said, adding that Senate debates around some of Trump’s other Cabinet picks have led to lengthy confirmations.

KALISPELL RESIDENT Jim Garvey voted for Zinke’s re-election in November, but he’s frustrated that the congressman’s recent voting record has left Montana’s one seat in the House effectively empty.

“It’s left Montanans without a voice,” Garvey said. “And I blame the bureaucracy. I want the Senate to confirm him or not confirm him, so we have that voice again.”

U.S. Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., took to the Senate floor last week and said “Democrat obstructionist tactics” are slowing Cabinet confirmations.

U.S. Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., said he’s looking forward to working with Zinke as the next Interior secretary.

“I wish Majority Leader [Mitch] McConnell would have brought Congressman Zinke’s nomination to the floor weeks ago, the delay is frustrating,” Tester said.

Daines said in a press release Friday that the Senate is scheduled to make a roll call vote on Zinke’s confirmation Feb. 27. Zinke accepted Trump’s nomination on Dec. 15.

The expectation is that Zinke will get confirmed. But, Johnson said the longer it takes, the longer Montana’s House seat is vacant.

Montana Gov. Steve Bullock will have 85 to 100 days to hold a special election to replace Zinke per state law once he is confirmed. That means if the Senate confirms Zinke next week, the special election could run through the beginning of June.

Since Montana has just one of Congress’ 435 seats, Johnson said the state’s representative rarely determines what comes out of the House.

“In the House, so much is controlled by the majority party — who right now, are the Republicans,” he said. “There’s less room for any individual member to make a mark.”

ASIDE FROM Montana, there are six states limited to one House representative: Alaska, Delaware, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

In recent decades, only one of those experienced the situation Montana now faces.

In 1989, future Vice President Dick Cheney of Wyoming resigned from Congress when he was named Defense secretary by President George H.W. Bush. The state’s seat in the House sat empty for 41 days during the transition.

If selected, Zinke would be the first Montanan to serve in a Cabinet-level position. It would also trigger a scramble for the state’s political parties to nominate a replacement.

So far at least seven people ­— a mix of Democrats and Republicans ­— have declared intent to seek nominations for the special election, according to Ballotpedia.

Johnson said if Trump’s approval ratings fall too low, it could threaten the Republicans’ two-decade hold on the state’s House seat.

“If Trump’s numbers are good, it will most likely be a Republican. If they’re bad, it could set up a situation for a reverse party,” he said.

Johnson said the President’s numbers are “not great for a new president.”

A Gallup poll from Feb. 13 through 19 placed Trump with a 40-percent approval rating. The firm that’s tracked public polls since Franklin D. Roosevelt recorded an average rating for the president’s first quarter on the job at 63 percent.

The latest survey from the Pew Research Center showed 30 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s time in office so far, while 56 percent disapproved.

Another poll by Rasmussen Reports — a source the President has quoted in recent weeks — shows that 50 percent of “likely U.S. voters” approve of Trump’s performance.

Johnson also noted that if the Montana’s special election begins after state universities and colleges wrap up for the summer, that could change the voting demographic of towns like Missoula, which he said typically have a more Democratic-lean when campuses are full.

“There’s a real potential flip for what’s been a Republican seat for 20 years,” he said. “The question is not what would happen now or tomorrow, but where will we be in a couple of months whenever this happens?”

Reporter Katheryn Houghton may be reached at 758-4436 or by email at khoughton@dailyinterlake.com.