Montana's 'purple' politics unique for rural West

In less than three weeks, Montana voters will select the state’s next federal delegate to fill its lone seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. And while statewide races in most rural, Western states increasingly produce victories for Republicans, Montana is something of an anomaly heading toward the May 25 special election, with Democrats remaining competitive despite a Republican-leaning electorate.

Montana’s landlocked neighbors have in recent years evolved into reliable Republican strongholds. In Idaho, no Democrat has won election to the U.S. Senate or governorship since 1974. Wyoming’s gubernatorial races have alternated between the two major parties, with a Democrat last winning the office in 2006, the state’s voters have also selected GOP candidates in every U.S. Senate race since ’74.

Yet the Treasure State has bucked that trend, delivering Democratic victories in its last four gubernatorial races, and in the majority of its U.S. Senate elections stretching back decades.

“We’re still a Republican-leaning state, particularly in federal elections,” says Jeremy Johnson, a political science professor at Carroll College in Helena. “But even though the state is broadly rural and in some ways similar to our neighboring states, our Democratic Party has fared better.”

Political experts offer a range of explanations for why Montana remains stubbornly “purple” in a country characterized by a sharpening rural-urban divide. But many agree one of the overriding factors is its strong legacy of labor unions.

“There is a relatively strong labor history in Montana, even though the labor unions have weakened somewhat,” Johnson says. “Their legacy still probably keeps Democrats somewhat more competitive than the other states.”

Whitefish Republican Bob Brown has for decades held a front-row seat to the state’s shifting political landscape, as a past chair of the Republican Party who spent decades in the state Legislature. He believes the loss of union jobs in the last three decades has been the driving force behind the GOP’s growing dominance in recent years.

“Traditionally, the Democrats’ appeal has been to the blue-collar working class. They were the working-man’s party,” Brown says. But since the ‘80s, “the intellectual-liberal, women’s-issues, environmental-issues Democratic Party just doesn’t connect with the worker, the blue-collar worker. And Republicans have made a lot of inroads that way.”

Brown uses Northwest Montana as a proxy for that statewide trend, although he notes the union legacy runs deeper in the state’s mining towns, particularly Butte and Anaconda. Today it’s known as one of the most conservative pockets of the state, but the Flathead Valley historically leaned Democratic, with saw-mill workers, railroad employees and well over 1,000 workers at the now-shuttered Columbia Falls Aluminum Co. provided a consistent base of union support.

But there’s more to the Montana’s moderate political bent than unions. While many of the country’s partisan feuds center around issues like abortion and immigration, public-land access and the influence of money in politics remain prominent in the state’s campaigns, as evidenced by stump speeches and political advertising in the ongoing House race between Republican Greg Gianforte and Democrat Rob Quist.

“Issues like a clean and healthful environment helps Democrats some places compared to other states,” Johnson notes. “Montana has a history of campaign finance issues. They resonate more in Montana than almost everywhere else.”

Zac Perry, a Hungry Horse legislator serving his second term in the Montana House of Representatives, also pointed to money in politics and environmental protections as priorities for Montana voters, including Republicans.

Perry is among a dwindling number of Democratic state lawmakers from outside Montana’s major cities. His 2014 victory over an incumbent Republican in House District 3 — by just 48 votes out of more than 3,000 cast — was the first for a Flathead lawmaker since 2008, although 2014 also saw a Democrat win a freshly-minted district centered around the liberal enclave of Whitefish.

He cited one of Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock’s major initiatives during the 2015 legislative session — the “Disclose Act” that requires increased disclosure of some third-party campaign spending — as helping to keep Democrats competitive among the state’s swing voters.

“They believe the less money in politics, the better, and that’s something the Democrats have owned, at least in Montana,” Perry says.

He acknowledged that the loss of union jobs in his district shifted the electorate in the Republicans’ favor over the years. But he also thinks Democrats in Montana have been more effective speaking to blue-collar workers than the national party.

“If you’re a party that claims to be looking out for the working class, you’ve gotta have more than lip service. You’ve got to have something to show for it,” he says. “And right now, I guess, there’s not much to show for it at the national level.”

Unlike Perry, both Brown and Johnson believe the national GOP’s grip on rural states is filtering through to Montana, albeit more slowly.

Johnson pointed out that both Bullock and the state’s Democratic Sen. Jon Tester have won re-election by thin margins with less than 50 percent of the vote, in races that included Libertarian candidates — who also tend to poll more strongly in Montana than other states.

“We’re not isolated from national trends. All things being constant, I expect us to follow national trends,” he says. “I think gone are the days from 20, 30 years ago, when you had Democrats like [former Sen.] Max Baucus and [Rep. Mike] Mansfield that run huge margins in Montana while the Republican presidential candidate also won by huge margins.”

How Montana’s political peculiarities play out on May 25 remains an open question.

It could be an uphill race for Quist, who is campaigning feverishly to boost his name recognition as he competes with Gianforte, who last year lost a tight gubernatorial contest.

The only nonpartisan polling to date, published by Emerson University in late April, gave Gianforte a 15-point lead over Quist.

Johnson cautioned against reading too much into a single poll during this race, however. With the nature of the special election landing on a Thursday and carrying only one contest on the ballot, voter turnout will likely be depressed, which he said complicates any pre-election polling.

“That’s going to be a great test. A conversation Democrats are having nationwide is, ‘How do we attract more voters in rural America?’ It will be interesting to see what those voters do.”

Even if the Democrats lose, Perry sees the race as an opportunity for the national party to learn to reconnect with rural voters.

“I think at the national level, when it comes to Democrats, you’re seeing this perception that there’s this disconnect between the party and the people,” he says. “Democrats purportedly are supposed to have the working-class people in mind, and I think at the national level they’ve kind of lost that connection.”

Reporter Sam Wilson can be reached at 758-4407 or by email at swilson@dailyinterlake.com.