Warm winter predicted for region

The National Weather Service anticipates Western Montana and the Northern Rockies will experience warmer than normal temperatures this winter.

For some, the prospect of a mild winter is good news, especially following a pair of harsh winters.

But the weather service also anticipates, with moderate to high confidence, that snowpack will be either at normal or lower than normal.

The prediction for the Flathead Basin is that snowpack will be at 79 percent of normal on April 1.

That figure doesn’t mean there will be less precipitation. Instead, it reflects the reality that the precipitation will probably come from a warmer air mass in mountainous terrain and be more likely to fall as rain than snow, said Alex Lukinbeal, a Missoula-based meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Bob Nester is climate program manager for the National Weather Service in Missoula.

Nester’s seasonal forecast for the period from November through February attributed the predictions for a warmer winter to a weak El Nino system this year.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, during El Nino “the southern tier of Alaska and the U.S. Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average, whereas the U.S. southern tier of states — from California to the Carolinas — tends to be cooler and wetter than average.”

Nester said there will be variation in precipitation. And he said there certainly will be winter events and snowfall in the valleys. He said arctic air masses have brought intense cold to Montana during previous El Nino-influenced winters.

“We will have winter impacts,” he said.

There might be increases in dense valley fog, he said, especially in December. There might be freezing rain and flash-freeze events that can yield slick roads, Nester said.

Reporter Duncan Adams may be reached at dadams@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4407.