Big elections, plenty of uncertainty for Montana voters in 2020

[Editor’s note: The Daily Inter Lake continues a series of stories today that take a look ahead to 2020. The news staff will be exploring upcoming local issues including education, Kalispell development plans, politics, chronic wasting disease, Glacier National Park’s Sun Road plan and the Flathead’s expanding arts and entertainment industry.]

By COLIN GAISER

Daily Inter Lake

While the U.S. presidential election will capture the nation in 2020, Montanans face a November ballot full of big decisions from top to bottom.

That sets Montana up for a wild and unpredictable year of politics.

Or as Lee Banville, professor at the University of Montana School of Journalism, told the Inter Lake, the big story of 2020 will be “the story we don’t even know yet.”

In the most notable state elections, Montanans will choose a new governor, a senator and a new member of the U.S. house. Republican Sen. Steve Daines is running for re-election and is the only incumbent in the major races.

Both the state Democrats and Republicans have reasons to hope 2020 will be a big year for their party.

“The Democrats need a new generation of leaders,” Banville said. He said with Steve Bullock being termed out of the governorship and choosing not to run for Senate, the party is left with few leaders besides Sen. Jon Tester.

Banville said 2020 could be about the Montana Democrats establishing “a bench” – a group of politicians with statewide recognition, who are “quote-on-quote ‘leaders’” and who “people turn to when they think of candidates” for political office.

He thinks the party could be fielding a “pretty strong set of candidates” in 2020. Kathleen Williams, running for the open U.S. House seat, received 46.2% of the vote against Greg Gianfore in 2018, the best result for a Democrat in that election in 18 years.

“She brings with her the experience of having done this once, and having done fairly well,” Banville said.

Banville pointed to some other Democratic candidates who could stake their claim as future leaders in the Montana Democratic Party, including Raph Greybill, Bullock’s 30-year-old chief legal counsel running for attorney general; Kim Dudik, Montana House representative for six years also running for attorney general; Bryce Bennett, a 35-year-old state senator and the lone Democrat running for secretary of state; and Wilmot Collins, the former refugee and current mayor of Helena running for U.S. Senate.

“It’ll be interesting to see how they campaign, like are they good candidates, do they resonate with voters, do they have messages that could be persuasive,” Banville said. “How does the party look at the end of this campaign will be really interesting.”

The GOP has loftier goals for 2020 – the party could take control of both the governor’s mansion and the state Legislature for the first time in 16 years. Whereas under Bullock and Schweitzer the governor’s offices hashed out differences with the Legislature on issues like the state budget and Medicaid, the GOP controlling both branches would make for “a very different state government,” Banville said.

A trio of Republican heavy-hitters is seeking out the governorship: Attorney General Tim Fox, U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte and State Sen. Al Olszewski.

Gianforte – the wealthiest member of Congress – has the fundraising advantage as of the latest financial reports. He had raised nearly $332,000 as of the Sept. 30 report, with the top donors being from out-of-state groups including Bk2 Holdings, a New Jersey-based company linked to billionaire GOP donor Bruce Kovner, according to a report by OpenSecrets.org.

Fox had raised just over $252,000 as of the last filing deadline – an impressive amount in other election years – with some money from outside political action committees but many smaller individual contributions. Olszewski had raised around $130,000 without the same name-recognition but many “die-hard supporters,” according to Banville.

With the next filing date on Jan. 5, it remains to be seen how the last three months of fundraising in 2019 will impact the campaign.

The Montana GOP also has some heavy-hitters battling it out in the primary race for the U.S. House seat. State Auditor Matt Rosendale – who lost to Tester by three-and-a-half points in the 2018 Senate race – and current Secretary of State Corey Stapleton are both seeking to represent the GOP on the ballot in November.

Rosendale has the name recognition to be the early favorite in that race, but there is plenty of time for other candidates to make an impact.

“Montana is an interesting state because a lot of the politics is still very personal,” Banville said. He pointed to Tester as someone who was not as well-known statewide when he knocked off longtime incumbent Republican Sen. Conrad Burns in 2006, but sprung the upset “through the strength of his personality and his ability to connect with lots of different Montanans.”

This early in the election cycle, especially in Montana, it is difficult to tell how people will vote. Which party will have the energy, enthusiasm or anger to attract the best turnout? Will Montana go from a “purple” state to a decidedly red state, or will the political climate get Democrats fired up enough to spring some Election Day surprises?

President Donald Trump’s impeachment could play a role in sparking enthusiasm on both sides. As Banville put it, “Democrats or those that oppose President Trump and those that support President Trump right now are both incredibly fired up and motivated,” which could equal a high turnout on Election Day.

But there are still plenty of moving parts, including the effect the Democratic Party’s eventual nominees – both for president and the Montana races – will have on the elections. What if Mayor Collins wins the nomination for Senate and mounts a more significant-than-expected challenge against Daines? What if “the Trump effect” inspires more enthusiasm among Republican voters than Democratic voters, especially in a state Trump won by over 20 points in 2016?

Prognosticating is a fun exercise, but it feels like a fool’s errand in Montana.

“Montanans have demonstrated a deep and heartfelt willingness to throw conventional wisdom out the door and do things you don’t expect,” Banville said.

Adding to the uncertainty is the lack public-opinion polling. Montana’s geographic and ideological diversity makes it an especially hard state to poll, leaving it difficult for journalists, campaigns and donors to gauge where Montanans are on certain candidates or issues.

As Banville put it, “Until people cast a ballot there’s a lot of unanswered questions.”

Montana’s primary election takes place on June 2, while the general election is set for Nov. 3.

Reporter Colin Gaiser may be reached at cgaiser@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4439