UM Poll: Trump, Bullock, Rosendale, Gianforte lead Montana races

MISSOULA — The University of Montana Big Sky Poll recently asked 517 registered Montana voters, if the election were held today, how would they vote? In a series of head-to-head matchups, participants were asked to pick their preferred candidate.

U.S. President

52% favor President Trump. (These results indicate a 4% decrease in support for President Trump from a February 2020 poll.)

38% favor former Vice President Joe Biden.

10% do not know.

U.S. Senate

47% favor Gov. Steve Bullock.

43% Sen. Steve Daines.

10% do not know.

U.S. House of Representatives

45% support Montana State Auditor Matt Rosendale.

37% favor Kathleen Williams.

18% do not know.

MT Governor

46% support Rep. Greg Gianforte.

36% favor Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney.

18% do not know.

“Many voters are still undecided for key races across the state, indicating tough races this November,” said Sara Rinfret, co-director of UM’s Big Sky Poll.

Rinfret also is a professor and chair of UM’s Department of Public Administration and Policy. She and Justin Angle, associate professor of marketing in UM’s College of Business, co-direct the poll, which provides experiential learning opportunities at UM and is a fellowship opportunity for students in UM’s Master of Public Administration, law and Master of Science in Business Analytics degree programs.

The UM Big Sky Poll was conducted online from June 17 to 26, with 517 randomly selected registered Montana voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4.31 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. Survey results were weighted by geography, gender and education level to more accurately reflect characteristics of the registered voter population in Montana.

The survey was commissioned with support from UM’s Max S. Baucus Institute, housed in the University’s Department of Public Administration and Policy.

Full results from this poll are available on the UM Big Sky Poll website: https://www.umt.edu/bigskypoll/Polls/default.php.