Flathead GOP expects to dominate election

Editor’s note: This is the first of a two-part article about the state of the Republican and Democratic parties in Flathead County. An article focusing on the Democrats will publish in Wednesday’s edition.

How Republicans come out to vote will be what decides statewide elections, according to John Fuller, chairman of the Flathead County Republican Party Central Committee and representative for House District 8.

“If Republicans of the Flathead Valley turn out in large numbers, the fate of all statewide Republicans will be dramatically enhanced,” Fuller said.

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates the population of Flathead County was around 102,000 in 2018, about one-tenth of the population of Montana. Such a large chunk of the state population means the county could sway an election in tight races.

Flathead County Commissioner Randy Brodehl, who represented House District 9 from 2011 through 2019, calls Flathead County “the anchor” for the conservative vote in Montana. He said the county has a high percentage of conservatives with high levels of engagement in politics, and Republicans running for statewide races do well when overall turnout is high.

In the 2016 election for governor and 2018 election for the U.S. Senate, Republican candidates won the Flathead, but not by as much as President Trump did in 2016. Trump won the county 65% to 26.8% over Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton on his way to winning the state 56.5% to 36%.

That year, current U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte won the county by just 15 percentage points over Gov. Steve Bullock, as Bullock won the state by 3.8%. The results were similar for current State Auditor Matt Rosendale, who lost his U.S. Senate bid by 3.5% to incumbent Democrat Jon Tester while winning Flathead County by 15 percentage points.

“Montanans will vote for whomever they like, regardless of political party if they know ’em. A Republican could get a Democrat to vote for them if they like each other, and vice versa,” Fuller said.

But in 2020, Fuller said Flathead County Republicans are more enthusiastic about taking back the governor’s mansion after 16 years of Democratic control.

“The governor’s office is the big kahuna,” Fuller said. Though Republicans have controlled both chambers of the Montana Legislature since 2010, the party has not been able to implement its full agenda.

“Without the governor of your party on the second floor, to some degree … all you are is a 90-day impediment to parking,” Fuller said.

But the race for governor is setting up better for Republicans than it has in years. The Republican primary pits three well-known Republican heavyweights up against each other: Gianforte, Montana Sen. Al Olszewski, and Attorney General Tim Fox. Gianforte has a large money advantage, but Fox is well-liked and has received big endorsements, and Olszewski has a passionate base of supporters.

The two Democratic candidates, Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney and Whitney Williams, cannot boast quite the same level of name recognition.

In addition, according to Fuller, enthusiasm among Flathead Valley Republicans is at a “record high.” He said the main reason is support for President Trump, along with what he believes is an “inherent dislike of Montanans at the unfair treatment of Republicans and especially Donald J. Trump.”

He believes the “reprehensible tactics, lies and deceits” used by Democrats in Washington “rubs against the grain of all Montanans regardless of their political stripe who inherently treat everybody decently.”

The second big factor, Fuller explained, is that people are “distressed by the lower level of the discourse that’s gone on, the incivility.”

Brodehl agreed, saying “people are more engaged [in politics] than they have been for quite a while.”

“There’s a red wave coming,” Brodehl said.

THE ENTHUSIASM is reflected in the number of local Republican candidates running for seats in the Montana Legislature. The GOP will have a number of contested primaries, including where incumbent Republicans are running for re-election.

“We also have the opportunity to take back some seats at least,” Brodehl said, referring to the two local legislative seats held by Democrats: House Districts 3 and 5.

In Kalispell’s House District 11, incumbent Derek Skees is facing a challenge from local Republican activist Dee Kirk-Boon. Incumbents David Dunn and Mark Noland in House Districts 9 and 10 also have a primary race on their hands.

But is this healthy for Flathead County Republicans, or does it create unnecessary division?

Fuller said while he is “not particularly excited” about the number of contested primaries, he said it is more of a sign that the party is healthy.

“More and more people want to be down in Helena getting involved in the process,” Fuller said. “Republicans believe we’re going to win, we’re going to be down there with a Republican governor and we’re going to do some things.”

He said the difference between primary candidates is more about “methodology and specifics” and that Republicans still have the same end goals.

But one local race represents a possible divide between Flathead Republicans. Jerry O’Neil – a state legislator from 2001-2015 – abandoned his bid for Senate District 2 to challenge incumbent Frank Garner in House District 7, which encompasses most of Kalispell.

O’Neil told the Inter Lake he wanted to “educate the public” on Garner’s involvement with an organization called American Promise, a nonprofit organization seeking a constitutional amendment to overturn the controversial 2010 Citizens United ruling and limit the influence of money in politics.

Garner is not a member of the organization and only spoke at one of their events in Missoula. But O’Neil said Garner “has more support from the status quo” while he “has more support from the people paying the taxes.”

Garner told the Inter Lake he has always supported keeping “dark money” out of politics. “We’re going to see it in this election cycle like we’ve never seen it before.”

“He [O’Neil] clearly thinks that it should be OK, and I don’t,” Garner added.

But regardless of who is representing Flathead Valley Republicans in the Legislature for the 2021 session – staunch conservatives like O’Neil or more moderate politicians like Garner – Fuller is confident the 2020 election is going to be a monumental one for the party.

“Because we’re so confident that we’re going to get a Republican governor,” Fuller said, “I might have to somehow budget into the Legislature enough cheap sunglasses for every Flathead resident because our future will be so bright.”

Reporter Colin Gaiser may be reached at 758-4439 or cgaiser@dailyinterlake.com