MSU poll finds close contests, strong support for legal pot
Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., from left, Rep. Greg Gianforte, R-Mont., center, a Republican running for governor, and state auditor Matt Rosendale clap during Vice President Mike Pence's speech at a Republican campaign rally in Belgrade, Mont., on Monday, Sept. 14, 2020. (AP Photo/Tommy Martino)
FILE - In this Feb. 21, 2020, file photo, the two Democratic candidates for Montana governor, Whitney Williams, left, and Mike Cooney, debate at the Emerson Center for Arts and Culture in Bozeman, Mont. The pair will face each other in the June 2 primary. Montana voters are choosing party nominees for governor, U.S. Senate and House and a slate of other offices in a primary election that was changed to all-mail balloting to protect against the spread of the coronavirus. (Thom Bridge/Independent Record via AP, File)
Republican and Democratic candidates were practically neck and neck in Montana's congressional and gubernatorial races just two weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll from Montana State University Billings.
The Mountain States Poll, released Wednesday, also found strong support for an initiative that would legalize marijuana in Montana and strong opposition to another ballot measure that would strip local governments of authority to regulate guns.
The poll is based on phone interviews with 546 likely voters in Montana conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 24. The margin of error is 4.2%.
In the closely watched Senate race, Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock had a one-point lead over Republican incumbent Steve Daines with 48% to Daines' 47%, while 5% of respondents were undecided, the poll found.
In the race for Montana's lone House seat, the poll found Republican Matt Rosendale had a one-point lead over Democrat Kathleen Williams – 47% to 46%, with 6% undecided.
The race for governor was tied with 45% of respondents saying they had voted or planned to vote for Republican U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte and 45% supporting Democratic Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney. Just 2% expressed support for Libertarian candidate Lyman Bishop, while a significant share of respondents – 9% – said they were undecided.
Meanwhile, a poll conducted by Siena College and the New York Times, regarded as one of the most reliable by the polling website FiveThirtyEight, found Republicans had the edge in those same three Montana races.
In a survey of 758 likely voters conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 20, the Siena College poll showed Daines with a three-point lead over Bullock, Rosendale with a four-point lead over Williams and Gianforte with a four-point lead over Cooney.
Jason Adkins, an assistant professor of political science at MSU, distinguished the university's poll from others that rely on online surveys, text messaging, automated messages or mail.
“We are the only Montana poll that I am aware of that conducts all live phone interviews, which is unusual these days but important," he said in a statement.
The MSU poll found President Donald Trump had a seven-point lead over former Vice President Joe Biden – 52% to 45%, with 1% support for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 2% undecided. Other polls have given Trump a similar lead in Montana, though the margin has shrunk significantly in recent months.
"This is a dramatic drop since the 2016 presidential election, where Trump carried Montana by a 20-point margin over Hillary Clinton," the university said.
The MSU poll found majorities of independents, women and voters with bachelor's degrees favored the Democatic candidates in the congressional, gubernatorial and presidential races.
The same was true of younger voters ages 18 to 29, who offered double-digit leads to Bullock, Williams and Cooney and a seven-point lead to Biden. Turnout among those voters, however, has been much lower than among older age groups in past elections.
If the MSU poll is any indication, Montana voters also appear ready to legalize pot. Initiative 190, which would allow for recreational marijuana use and impose a 20% sales tax on pot products, garnered support from 54% of poll respondents, while 38% opposed the measure and 7% were undecided.
Majorities of women, voters who have attended college, and those in the 18-29 and 45-65 age groups supported I-190, the poll found. The measure had support from 77% of Democrats and 63% of independents, but only 31% of Republicans, it found.
Meanwhile, 52% of respondents opposed Legislative Referendum 130, which would prohibit cities and counties from regulating firearms, including gun sales and open and concealed carrying. The poll found 36% supported the measure and 12% were undecided.
Backers and opponents of LR-130 dispute some of the effects the measure would have. Many school officials worry it would hinder their ability to prevent people from carrying guns on school campuses.
Reporter Chad Sokol can be reached at 758-4434 or csokol@dailyinterlake.com
