Flathead Valley's available housing supply continues to shrink, experts say

The available housing supply continues to dwindle in Flathead County while the unemployment rate remains low, according to a mid-year economic forecast presented by the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce on Thursday.

Held at Flathead Valley Community College on July 27, the forum featured Pat Barkey, director of the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at the University of Montana, and James Williamson of Sage Appraisal and Strategy. Gov. Greg Gianforte also spoke.

The average household income in the valley has increased exponentially as people from out of state move to the region, Barkey said. The rush of new cash and new people has created strains, he said.

“It's clearly a big firehose of people that have been moving here and that has produced some problems, recent problems in the housing market,” he said.

The median growth in housing prices in Montana over the past two years has been 46% with Flathead County outstripping the state. From 2020 to 2022, Kalispell’s median housing price grew 49.4% and in Whitefish it grew by 62.3%, Barkey said. These are changes that Barkey described as scary.

Further, a household that makes the median salary for Flathead County can only afford up to 50% of the sale prices on the market, he said.

From 1980 to 2010, the housing supply grew at a rate higher than that of the population. The situation is reversed today, Barkey said, with more people moving to the region than houses are being built.

In 2011, there was an estimated surplus of 3,000 housing units in Flathead Valley. In 2022, there was a deficit of 3,161 housing units.

Regardless of whether residents want to see more homes built, it may be necessary to address increasing demand and prices, Barkey said.

“It's no accident that you do more building in places that are growing faster,” Barkey said.

WHILE THE housing market continues to adapt, the county is maintaining a low level of unemployment, said James Williamson, the founder of Sage Appraisal and Strategy and a member of the Kalispell Chamber of Commerce’s board of directors.

There has been little to no change in the workforce size and there are sufficient job opportunities in the local market, he said, yet limited housing and child care options are affecting companies’ ability to hire.

Still, Williamson described the valley’s economy as robust.

“We've got a pretty strong economy here in Flathead County and I think that we've got a lot of opportunities to grow businesses and continue to operate here,” Williamson said.

Gianforte touted his work and that of the state Legislature to foster fertile economic conditions during his turn to address the crowd.

“I said it before and I’ll continue to say it: Montana is open for business,” he said.

Gianforte noted the state is in its 20th consecutive month of unemployment coming in below 3%. He also celebrated returning $500 million to residents for permanent tax relief and tax rebates, paying off the state’s debt and lowering capital gains rates.

“Despite our successes, we do have challenges,” Gianforte said.

Those challenges include a lack of affordable housing, a labor shortage and high property taxes, though the governor argued that state lawmakers made progress on each of those issues in the most recent legislative session.

The event was the kick-off event for the Governors’ Cup, a two-day golf tournament organized by the Montana Chamber Foundation. Gianforte is expected to stay in Kalispell into the weekend for the event.

Reporter Kate Heston can be reached at kheston@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4459.