Concerned about Flathead Lake Levels this summer? Why you should be now.
Last summer I was lucky, I took my boat out a month early to ensure I could. Will history repeat itself this summer?
No one can accurately predict the weather. And some folks around here do not believe in climate change. If you want to know if our climate is changing – ask your local farmer. You do not need to be a scientist or a conspiracy theorist. If you want a few facts about our local climate conditions, current lake and reservoir levels, and pending concerns, please read on.
According to the USDA drought monitor, most of Montana is currently in either abnormally dry, moderate or severe drought. Most of eastern Flathead County is in severe drought. Our current snowpack is around 75% of the median snow water equivalent. SWE determines how much water the snowpack contains. This helps water and resource managers plan for water use. Last year at this time our snowpack stood at 95%.
In the Flathead Basin there are currently 14 snow monitoring sites that range in elevation between 4,300 and 7,400-feet. Current SWE ranges between 3.9 to 35.1. There is enough snow melt in the basin that will begin usually in mid-April to fill the lake.
We have less than 2 weeks to make up for this lack of snowpack, and as National Weather Service personnel and other experts have told us we will not make it. What will spring temperatures bring and what will May and June (typically our wettest months) precipitation be?
The current Flathead Lake level elevation is around 2,885 or 8 feet below full pool. The median lake level for this time of year (based on the records of 2000 to 2023), is 0.45-feet below this current level. We can all recall last year when we had a very warm and wet spring that melted all the snow in a few short days. The lake was filled early and the drought conditions that followed left an unprecedented low lake level (almost 3 feet) below full pool that resulted in private boat docks that were inaccessible, swimming and boating was hazardous, and businesses were impacted, resulting in millions of lost revenue and recreational opportunities.
Fast forward to today. Energy Keepers Inc. is a Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes (CSKT) wholly owned and independent Power Producer. They operate the Se’lis Ksanka Qlispe’ (formerly Kerr) dam that controls the lake level and outflow of the lake. CSKT Energy Keepers, Inc has a Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) license that requires reporting on their operations, maintenance, and mitigation measures, as well as other requirements.
The FERC license also requires that they meet minimum instream flows downstream of the dam. After many complaints were sent to FERC in 2023 concerning the low lake levels, FERC reviewed the record and issued a letter to Energy Keepers, Inc. in February 2024 that said they were following their operational requirements of the license.
It is a complicated basin that is the headwaters of the Columbia River drainage basin and includes Hungry Horse Dam and reservoir that is operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Currently, Hungry Horse is down 21 feet from full pool and the discharge from Hungry Horse is around 800 cubic feet per second (cfs).
Minimum instream flows to be released downstream from a dam are important for a whole host of beneficial uses including but not limited to fisheries, water quality, habitat, irrigation, wildlife, navigation, groundwater recharge, and the scenic/aesthetics of natural settings.
EnergyKeepers, Inc. minimum instream flows in their FERC license are 3,200 cfs from Aug. 1 – April 15, and then ramps up from 5,000 to 12,700 cfs through June. Minimum flows from July 1-15 are reduced from 12,700 to 6,400 cfs, and July 16-31 are reduced from 6,400 to 3,200 cfs.
If EnergyKeepers, Inc. is keeping to the requirements of their FERC license, then why did they lower Flathead Lake 1 foot from 2,886 to 2,885-feet during most of March? During March 4-29, the outflow (Flathead River at Polson) was approximately 7,500 cfs. During this period, Flathead River at Columbia Falls was between 3,400 – 4,000 cfs. Was this a poor management decision or simply greedy power production? Knowing the conditions in the watershed why would they continue to lower the lake 1 foot?
In March, as reported in the Daily Inter Lake, EnergyKeepers, Inc. successfully petitioned the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to deviate from the lake’s Flood Risk Management Plan. In the April 4 article it states, “The water level of the lake is typically drawn down to 2,883 feet each spring as per the management plan. The deviation will keep the level at 2,885 feet – 2 feet higher than usual – in anticipation of low snowpacks and minimal runoff.”
EnergyKeepers, Inc. is not being level. According to my records (of early March) over the past 12-years, there have been only three years that the lake was drawn down 9.5-feet below full pool (2013, 2014 and 2020). During the other nine years the lake was only drawn down between 8.0 to 8.5-feet below full pool (which is typically more normal). Based on my records, the lake is not being held 2 feet higher than usual.
Snowpack SWE in March during the 12-year period ranged from a high of 141% (2018) to a low of 85% in 2019. In 2024, the current snowpack is one of the lowest it has been during this early spring period, at 73% on April 5.
EnergyKeepers, Inc. has noted that watershed conditions in the future will look different with climate change, and that us Stakeholders will have to adjust. The stakeholders of Flathead Lake are a great deal more than a few rich lakeside owners as EnergyKeepers, Inc. has also implied. They will have to do more than develop a new prought plan and hire a public relations officer.
Who will review and approve their Drought Plan? Will FERC send out a public notice for all stakeholders to get a look? CSKT was somehow able to purchase the dam very inexpensively and is making millions monthly on power production. Their focus appears to be on power production whether we are flooding or in drought mode.
With a changing climate including warmer winters, less snowfall, earlier runoff, and a much different hydrograph will we ever have a normal full pool lake level? History is poised to repeat itself this year.
Changes to CSKT EnergyKeepers, Inc. FERC license need to be made in coordination with other agencies. But can they be formulated, agreed upon, and implemented in a timely fashion? I doubt it.
Kudos to EnergyKeepers, Inc. for petitioning the CORPs for deviations to their operations. A new FERC license is also called relicense, authorizes the continued operation of an existing (previously licensed) project, and the license term is usually between 30 to 50 years. The most recent license period for CSKT started in 1985. FERC has issued nine orders since 1985 that have created new text for the license.
There will be many changes throughout the Flathead watershed during the next 50 years. Who has the political will to require needed changes to the FERC license? It will take more than a few bureaucrats yelling and screaming and sending letters.All stakeholders must get involved and have a represented voice at the table.
Does anyone think this is doable? Will EnergyKeepers, Inc. be as concerned about lake levels as they are with prioritizing other dam owner operator goals and benefits of their project? Do not count on it.
Flood control is a significant concern. A balancing is required to draw down the lake to allow room for spring runoff and implement best practices and adaptive management techniques to be able to maintain full pool or close to it during the recreational summer months.
Will your dock be high and dry this summer and beyond? Will your business, land, or crops be impacted again? How many recreational opportunities will be lost? How low will the lake level go? I do not envy their new Public Relations person. I would imagine he would be putting in a great deal of overtime. Now is the time for transparency. Why did the lake drop 1 foot in March with more than twice the outflow as required for minimum instream flows in the FERC license? Is this their new normal? If it is, we are going to need a bunch of new public boat launches around the lake. And they will need to be designed with a minimum of a 3-foot drop from full pool.
Pray for snow? Nope too late, get the rain gods to look favorably on us. Only a cool, wet spring will save our lake levels.
Bob Storer lives in Bigfork.