Poll gives Sheehy slight lead over Tester

Montana’s Republican U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy slightly leads Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester in the race and has picked up more undecided voters than the three-term incumbent during the past five months, but the contest is still within the margin of error, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted this week.

The poll, conducted Aug. 5-6 and released Thursday morning, is also the first conducted in Montana since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, and shows she trails Republican former President Donald Trump in Montana by 15 percentage points in both a head-to-head matchup and when third parties are accounted for.

The survey shows that there is a wide split between men and women in Montana in terms of who they plan to support in the Senate race, that Harris has quickly garnered the favor of college-educated voters over Trump and is more favorable to voters than President Joe Biden, and that Republican Gov. Greg Gianforte maintains a neutral approval rating.

Emerson College Polling/The Hill has conducted surveys of Montana voters last October, in March this year, and now Aug. 5-6. The most recent poll is the first from the group to show Sheehy with any lead in the race against Tester.

The Bozeman businessman now leads Tester 48% to 46%, with just 5% of voters undecided, but within the ±3% margin of error. In the March poll, following Rep. Matt Rosendale’s departure from the Republican primary, Tester led Sheehy 44% to 42%, with 14% of respondents undecided. Last October, Tester led Sheehy 39% to 35%, with 21% undecided.

Women support Tester over Sheehy 53% to 41% in the survey, while men support Sheehy over Tester 56% to 40%.

Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball said the poll shows more undecided voters have recently been choosing to support Sheehy over Tester.

“The share of undecided voters has decreased from 14% to 5% as November draws closer, and Sheehy has benefitted with a six-point increase in support, while Tester’s support has only increased by two points,” Kimball said in a statement.

Gianforte’s approval rating remains virtually tied, at 41% who said they approve of the job he’s doing as governor compared to 40.7% who disapprove of his work. Eighteen percent of respondents were undecided, according to the survey. But it did not include questions about Gianforte’s matchup this November against Democrat Ryan Busse and Libertarian Kaiser Leib.

The economy is the most important issue facing Montana, according to 40% of the people polled. Coming in behind that were housing affordability (27%), threats to democracy (10%), immigration (6%), healthcare (4.5%), abortion access (4.3%), and education (2.5%).

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Trump leads Harris 55% to 40% in Montana, and among the 5% of undecided voters who were polled, there is a 50-50 split between the candidates.

When accounting for those leaning undecided voters, Trump leads Harris in Montana 57.5% to 42.5%, according to the survey. And when factoring in third-party candidates like Robert Kennedy Jr., Trump leads Harris 53.5% to 39%, while Kennedy received 4.6% in the poll. Three other candidates had one respondent each say they would support them.

About 55.5% of respondents voted for Trump in 2020 and about 39.5% voted for Biden, which mirrors Trump’s 16-point victory in Montana that year. Trump’s margin over Harris of 15 percentage points is similar.

But Harris’ favorability is better than Biden’s approval ratings among those surveyed. About 31% of respondents said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president, compared to 60% who disapprove.

For Harris, 42% of people surveyed have a somewhat or very favorable view of her, compared to 57% who have a somewhat or very unfavorable view of the vice president.

About 55% of respondents have a favorable view of Trump, compared to 45% who view him unfavorably, according to the poll.

Kimball said since March, Trump’s support has fallen by a percentage point, while Harris improved by 5 percentage points over where Biden stood in March and changed the support of voters with college degrees.

“Harris has picked up ground among women voters – 47% support Harris compared to 40% who supported Biden, while Trump maintains around 61% support among male voters,” Kimball said. “Voters with college degrees have also flipped; in March, they broke for Trump by seven points, now breaking for Harris by seven.”

U.S. Senate polls conducted in Montana since June have found largely either a statistical tie between Sheehy and Tester or a slight lead for Sheehy, while Trump had maintained a lead over Biden of at least 16% until he dropped out of the race, according to a FiveThirtyEight roundup of polls.

Trump is set to campaign alongside Sheehy at a rally in Bozeman on Friday night after not campaigning for most of the week since Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz to be her running mate. He is expected to host a news conference Thursday afternoon in Florida.

The survey was conducted Aug. 5-6 with a sample of 1,000 likely voters weighted by gender, education, race, age, party affiliation and region based on 2024 voter registration and turnout modeling, according to the firms. The data was collected via cell phone polling and an online voter panel, and the margin of error is ±3% with a 95% confidence interval.

Blair Miller is a Helena-based reporter. The Daily Montanan is a nonprofit newsroom.