How Montana’s federal races are stacking up money-wise to start 2024

Year-end political campaign finance filings from politicians vying for the three federal offices up for election this year in Montana show at least $30 million flowing in the U.S. Senate race alone, which is expected to be one of the most closely watched races in the country.

The filings, due Jan. 31, show sitting Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Tester raised another $4.8 million, plus about $534,000 in committee transfers, in the final quarter of 2023 to bring his total haul for the year to $25.1 million – the fifth-most raised by any Senate candidate running this year. He ended the year with $11.2 million in cash on hand after spending $7.1 million in the final quarter.

Political committees have also already spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads attacking Tim Sheehy, the Bozeman Republican backed by Sen. Steven Daines and the National Republican Senatorial Committee and Gov. Greg Gianforte. Sheehy is receiving staunch support from Washington, D.C., Republicans and consistently attacking Tester on social media.

Sheehy raised $1.6 million, plus $450,000 he loaned to himself and $307,000 in committee transfers, in the final quarter of the year to bring his fundraising total since declaring last June to $5.3 million. Sheehy spent $2.3 million in the final quarter of 2023 and ended the year with about $1.3 million in cash on hand.

Rep. Matt Rosendale, eastern Montana’s Republican Congressman, has long been eyeing a possible entry into the Senate Republican primary to try to secure a chance to square off with Tester again after losing to the Big Sandy Democrat in the 2018 Senate race.

But Sheehy’s deep personal pockets and backing from the NRSC put Rosendale in a tougher position with just four months before Montana’s June 4 primary and three months before absentee ballots must be available for voters. Rosendale has until March 11 to decide whether he wants to jump into the primary or possibly run for re-election to the House of Representatives.

But his House campaign only raised $92,000 in the final quarter of the year and spent $160,000, according to his filing. He ended the year with $1.6 million in cash, which could transfer over to a Senate campaign if he chooses that path.

Less than two weeks ago, Rosendale and Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., hosted several fundraising events in Montana in which Rosendale asked for financial support, saying he was still toying with a Senate run but not outright committing. Gaetz noted the likely realities if Rosendale does enter the race.

“If he runs for the Senate, he’s going to get out-spent. I know that. But if you guys can put some resources into his congressional campaign now, we can build up a war chest that is sufficient just to tell our story, just to tell the truth,” Gaetz said.

Rosendale told the Daily Montanan and another reporter afterward that he’s still not as concerned with political dollars as his own messaging – six years after Tester outraised and outspent him by about $15 million.

“It’s not always about dollars. It is about ideas, and people around this state and around this country are starving for someone to listen to them and then to actually serve the way that they campaign,” he said.

Rosendale’s tour with Gaetz came just days after several news outlets reported the Democratic Senate Majority’s political action committee was placing ad reservations worth $27 million, and that two Republican-aligned PACS had reserved $48 million in ad buys that would run late summer through Election Day.

Brad Johnson, a former Public Service Commission chair and secretary of state who entered the Republican Senate primary in October, gave himself a $15,000 loan and raised a little more than $7,000 during his first months as a candidate. He ended the year with $1,367 in cash on hand.

IN THE 1st Congressional District race in western Montana, incumbent Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke raised $1 million in the final quarter of the year for an annual haul of $3.6 million. He spent $845,000 in the last three months of the year and ended 2023 with $1.9 million cash on hand.

He and Democrat Monica Tranel are currently slated for a rematch of their 2022 race, in which Zinke raised about $6.5 million to Tranel’s $3 million and won by about 8,000 votes and 3 percentage points.

Tranel announced her candidacy in July and so far has raised about $1.2 million, including $461,000 in the last quarter of the year. She spent $174,000 in the final quarter, leaving her with $895,000 in cash to start the year.

Zinke technically has a Republican primary challenger in Cory Moran from Great Falls, but he did not file any campaign finance records with the FEC.

WHILE MONTANA waits to see what Rosendale decides to do, a host of Republicans have lined up to run for his seat in the event Rosedale tries for the Senate again – and in some cases regardless of whether he does.

Outgoing State Auditor Troy Downing leads the pack so far in fundraising, ending the year with $294,000 in cash after bringing in about $353,000, including a $150,000 loan to his campaign.

Elsie Arntzen, currently the Superintendent of the Office of Public Instruction, ended the year with $118,000 cash on hand. Nearly all of her campaign fund is composed of $250,000 in a loan she gave to her campaign, which is labeled as an exploratory committee in the event Rosendale decides to run for Senate.

Ed Walker, a former Billings lawmaker, ended the year with $74,000 cash on hand after bringing in $103,000 in contributions during the final three months. Ric Holden, a former Glendive legislator, had $27,000 in cash to end 2023, while former Sidney legislator Joel Krautter ended the year with $9,700 in cash.

Former DEA agent Stacy Zinn reported $1,400 in cash on hand to end 2023, while Miles City state Sen. Ken Bogner filed to run in January and did not need to submit a year-end financial report.

On the Democratic side, Ming Cabrera, of Billings, brought in nearly $39,000 in contributions during the final quarter of the year and ended it with $24,000 in cash on hand. Kev Hamm, of Helena, raised nearly $12,000 in the final quarter and comes into 2024 with $2,800 cash on hand.

Blair Miller is a Helena-based reporter with the Daily Montanan, a nonprofit newsroom. To read the article as originally published, click here.