Prediction: Split-ticket voters will decide the election

The polls are so close, only a fool would predict the results of Tuesday’s election. So, here’s my prediction.

Kamala Harris is going to win a decisive majority in the Electoral College. And the Republicans are going to win clear majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. 

Why and how? 

Why? Because many independents, but also many Republicans, think that former President Donald Trump is too crazy and too dangerous to be president. For them, character and judgment count as much as policies. And Trump gets a grade of F on both. But these same voters clearly don’t like Harris either. Too extreme, too DEI and too woke. Since May, the more they have seen of her, the less they like her. For these kinds of voters — and they are probably a majority — it comes down to which is the least worst choice? 

How? Split-ticket voting. I predict that these kinds of centrist voters in seven key swing states are going to hedge their bets. They are going to vote Democrat on their choice for president but then go GOP on their Senate and House votes. They are going to hedge their bets: Keep Trump out of the White House but elect a GOP Congress to check Harris and her woke comrades from dismantling America.   

In 43 of the 50 states, the outcome of Tuesday’s presidential vote is all but guaranteed, but with both candidates well short of the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. It will come down to the seven “swing-states” with 93 electoral college votes in which the polls are too close to call: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. If Harris takes the first three — the blue wall — she wins. Two or three of the other five would give her a clear majority. A clear majority would  have another positive effect. The predictable false claims from Trump and his MAGA supporters that he won will have no credibility. 

But in these same seven swing states, five have incumbent Democratic senators who are either retiring or are up for election this year. In at least several of these, anyone-but-Trump Republicans and blue-collar Democrats who voted for Harris will then turn and put a check on her by voting for the Republican Senate candidate. Irrational? No. Just hedging their bets. 

This would increase the GOP’s current 51-49 majority in the Senate. It is almost certain that the Democrats will lose their two incumbent senators in West Virginia and Montana — both states that Trump will carry by more than 10%. If the GOP candidates win in just two or three of the Senate elections in these seven swing states, the next Senate will have at lease a 55-45 GOP majority. Good luck President Harris! 

What about the House? The GOP currently enjoys a small majority — 220-212, with three vacancies. With all 435 seats up for election, pollsters have identified about 70 House districts that are too close to all. But if the centrist voters that split their votes for president and Senate do the same for their House vote — which would be logical — then the GOP majority in the House will grow—providing a second check on a Harris presidency. 

The result: Divided government. Messy, but not uncommon. In five of the last 11 presidential elections — going back to Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory — he party that won the White House lost both chambers of Congress. Is this a recipe for policy gridlock? It can be. But it also creates an incentive for cooperation and compromise — something that has been sorely lacking in the last eight years.  Perhaps it is not by accident that two of the most popular ex-presidents — Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton — both had to work with a Congress controlled by the other party.  

So that’s my prediction: A Harris presidency and a GOP Congress; two years of divided government. If I’m right, we will just have to wait to see how this works out. But before readers become too discouraged by this prospect, it merits re-calling Winston Churchill’s description of democracy: The worst form of government except for all those others that have been tried from time to time.

Ted Morton is professor emeritus at the University of Calgary where he taught for over 30 years. He lives in Whitefish.