A closer look: New Kalispell precinct goes all blue while one Whitefish area leans red in governor's race

A voting bloc in downtown Kalispell bucked the prevailing conservative trends in the 2024 election, emerging as an island of blue amid Northwest Montana's overwhelming sea of red. 

Data shows Kalispell's newly drawn precinct 25 favored Democrats in each of the major statewide and federal races. The area includes a portion of downtown Kalispell from Fourth Street East to 14th Street East, and from First Avenue West toward Woodland Avenue. It previously was split between former precincts 3 and 4. 

Residents in the new precinct favored Monica Tranel over Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke 52% to 45%, and Democratic Sen. Jon Tester over challenger Tim Sheehy 54% to 43%. In the gubernational race, the area supported Democrat Ryan Busse over Gov. Greg Gianforte 51% to 47%. A little over 1,100 ballots were cast in the precinct. 

The results are a shift from the 2020 election where the same area, although in differently drawn precincts, favored all Republicans in statewide races. 

Precinct boundaries changed for the 2024 election as a result of redistricting. State law limits the number of registered voters in each precinct to 2,500 or fewer. 

While precinct 25 went blue, adjacent Kalispell precincts slightly tipped to Republicans in each of the races. Sheehy's margin of victory was a slim 17 votes in Kalispell's precinct 27, which spans from Woodland Avenue to Meridian and includes the north half of downtown's Main Street. Zinke earned 53% of the vote in this precinct, and Gianforte won with 55% support. Roughly 1,100 ballots were counted in precinct 27. 

Kalispell's precinct 26 also favored Sheehy, Zinke and Gianforte. A little less than 1,000 ballots were cast in the area that spans from the Flathead County Fairgrounds to Conrad Cemetery.  

Meanwhile, a newly drawn precinct in Whitefish swayed from blue to red in the gubernatorial election. The voting bloc in precinct 4 includes East Lakeshore Drive north of The Lodge at Whitefish Lake, Iron Horse Golf Club and Whitefish Mountain Resort. These residents supported incumbent Gianforte over Busse 50% to 48% but gave a slight 13-ballot edge to Tranel and backed Tester with 54% of the vote. In 2020, the area supported all Democrats. 

The new Columbia Falls precinct 10, which encompasses the city north of U.S. 2 from Meadow Lake to the Flathead River, favored Tester over Sheehy by just 16 votes. The same area in 2020 gave the edge to Republican Sen. Steve Daines in his race over challenger Steve Bullock.  

However, the precinct squarely supported Zinke's 2024 re-election bid, giving the Republican 55% of the ballot total, while Gianforte won the area with 56% of the vote. 

Of Flathead County's 56 precincts, only eight favored Tester in the Senate race, and just seven supported Tranel and Busse. 

Flathead County Republican Party chair Al Olszewski touted the broad support for conservative candidates in the county and the high voter turnout. 

"Compared to 2020, over 14,000 more people voted in our county," Olszewski noted this week in a letter to supporters. "They voted overwhelmingly for Republican candidates." 

That aligns with Montana voter data indicating that over the last 15 years the state's new residents are more often Republicans. 

IN THE House race, Zinke was able to expand his overall margin of victory in the rematch with Tranel by locking up the western district's rural communities. 

The Republican from Whitefish won every precinct in Lincoln, Sanders, Mineral, Ravalli, Granite, Beaverhead and Powell counties. In most of these areas Zinke secured 75-80% of the vote, helping offset his opponent's strength in urban areas.  

Missoula's university district precincts generally supported Tranel with 80-85% of the vote. Bozeman's support wasn't quite as robust, but Tranel still earned about 70-80% of the vote in the city's university areas. The Democrat also won Butte's core voting bloc, although by a less convincing margin. The Uptown historic district supported Tranel with about 65% of the vote.  

Zinke's home precinct in downtown Whitefish favored Tranel with 66% of the vote total.