Sheehy, Gianforte lead in NYT/Siena Montana poll

A New York Times/Siena poll of Montana released Thursday shows Tim Sheehy with a lead of seven percentage points over incumbent U.S. Sen. Jon Tester as ballots start going to voters’ mailboxes Friday, and healthy leads for Gov. Greg Gianforte and former President Donald Trump in their respective races.

Democrats aren’t leading in any races, according to recent polls of statewide candidates.

Tester’s seat is perhaps the primary target for Republicans hoping to take back power in the U.S. Senate, and Montana’s junior Sen. Steve Daines, as head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee for this election cycle, is leading the charge to put Bozeman businessman Sheehy into the three-term Democratic senator’s seat.

With polls showing Democrats having slight edges over their Republican opponents in other Senate battleground states, including Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada, Republicans have keyed in on Montana to flip the Senate, with West Virginia almost certain to end up in Republican hands because of Sen. Joe Manchin’s decision not to seek re-election.

“The nation is watching Montana; they are counting on us,” Daines told the crowd at Trump’s August rally with Sheehy in Bozeman. “…If we are going to take this country back, we must elect President Trump, and we must elect Tim Sheehy to support President Trump back in Washington.”

Tester is counting on support from some ticket splitters, who will vote for both him and Trump, but the incumbent has lost ground since August.

The New York Times/Siena College poll surveyed 656 likely Montana voters from Oct. 5 to 8, with a roughly ±4.3% margin of error, according to the Times. Pollsters placed nearly 55,000 cell phone calls to almost 30,000 voters, according to the results. The polling was weighted based on several factors, including, party, race, marital status, education, and turnout history.

The results show Sheehy leading Tester 52% to 44%, rounded down to a seven-point margin. Tester leads independent voters 53% to 45% in the poll, but Sheehy has more-than-10-point leads in every region polled except for Missoula.

Sheehy also leads among every voter age group in Montana except for people aged 18-29. Among that group, Tester leads 63% to 34%. Men support Sheehy over Tester 58% to 38%, while women prefer Tester to Sheehy 51% to 45%, according to the poll results. Just 4% of people surveyed said they were undecided about for whom they would vote.

The poll results show Montanans would also prefer that Republicans are in charge of the Senate come next year by a 55% to 37% margin. Six percent of respondents who said they planned to vote for Tester voted for Trump in 2020, compared to 2% of Biden voters who said they would support Sheehy. Less than 0.5% of respondents said they would vote for either of the third-party Senate candidates.

Sheehy has led Tester in every poll since RMG Research put Tester at +5% in a poll conducted Aug. 6 to 14, and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight put the race at Sheehy +5% as of Friday.

The poll shows about 50% of Montanans have an unfavorable view of Tester compared to 47% who view him favorably. His favorability rating is most neutral in eastern Montana (51% unfavorable to 47% favorable), while the Missoula region sees him most favorably and the Billings area most unfavorably.

Sheehy has a net favorable rating, according to the poll of 52% to 46% who view him unfavorably. Missoula is the region that views him most unfavorably, while his favorability ratings are above water in every other area of the state.

Governor’s and presidential races

In the governor’s race, Gianforte holds a 22% lead over Democratic challenger Ryan Busse, according to the poll, 57% to 35%.

The Republican governor is also winning independents 54% to 39%, women 50% to 41%, and men 63% to 30%, according to the results. Busse has a narrow lead of six percentage points among the youngest voters and a one-point lead among voters with a college degree.

Libertarian Kaiser Leib garnered zero support in the poll, while 8% of respondents said they were undecided or refused to answer the question.

In a head-to-head presidential matchup, Trump leads Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris 57% to 40% in Montana, according to the results. Trends seen in the Senate race in the split between men and women and college-educated voters carry over to the presidential race as well, as women are more likely to support Harris than Trump, and college-educated voters are more likely to support the vice president as well.

When accounting for third-party candidates in the presidential race, Trump leads Harris 56% to 39%. None of the third-party candidates received more than 1% support in the poll. That is similar to Trump’s victory margin over President Joe Biden in 2020, when he won Montana by 16 percentage points.

Among leaning voters, 20% said they would likely vote for Trump, compared to 18% who said they were leaning toward voting for Harris.

About 35% of respondents said they were independents; another 35% said they were Republicans; and 22% said they were Democrats. Among independents, 49% said they leaned toward Republicans and 37% said they leaned toward Democrats.

The New York Times/Siena poll also surveyed Texas and Florida, two other states where the Senate races are within the margin for long-shot Democratic victories. Sen. Ted Cruz led Democratic challenger Colin Allred by 4 percentage points in the results, while Sen. Rick Scott led Democrat Debbie Mucarsel by 9 points, according to the results.

The Montana poll also asked respondents the one issue they believe is most important when deciding for whom to vote in November. The economy and immigration tied for the top result, at 22% each, while abortion came in third, at 15%. Montanans will vote in November on CI-128, which seeks to enshrine abortion protections in Montana’s constitution.

Thirty-seven percent of Democrats and 14% of independents in the survey called abortion their top issue, compared to 5% of Republicans. Democrats are hopeful that having the abortion initiative on the ballot could help Democrats in down-ballot races despite the strong support in Montana for Trump because of Sheehy’s vehement opposition to the initiative.