Poll shows Sheehy, Tester locked in dead heat

With a week left to go until Election Day 2024, polls that show presidential candidates neck-and-neck mirror some of the races closer to the Treasure State.

While the presidential race doesn’t appear to be close in Montana, according to the latest poll, some of the other Montana races and issues have tightened, notably the U.S. Senate race that could determine the balance of power there.

Three-term incumbent Jon Tester, a Democrat, is facing a tough challenger in hand-picked Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer. The race has garnered national attention and a tidal wave of election money has followed both candidates, with hundreds of dollars being spent for every man, woman and child living in the state of approximately 1.2 million.

In the 37th annual Mountain States Poll conducted by Montana State University-Billings and released on Tuesday, the Sheehy-Tester match-up is in a dead heat, with each candidate drawing 43% of the vote.

The poll’s results followed the contours of the contest, which have shown a particularly close race. Tester’s approval ratings among Montanans appears to be as evenly split as the race itself, with 42% of the respondents saying they approved and 41% saying they disapproved, leaving 12% neutral.  However, Tester’s approval rating with independent voters rates much higher, at 48%, and women tend to favor Tester’s job performance more than men, 48% to 35%.

Tester also generally rates more favorably with voters the more education they have.

Tester’s support is solid with Democrats at 95%, but Sheehy’s support even among those who identified as Republican is slumping at 81%. Among independent voters, Tester leads Sheehy, according to the poll, 48% to 33%.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Sunday showed Sheehy leading Tester 50% to 46%, with 3% undecided, and Sheehy leading Tester 51% to 48% when those undecided voters picked a candidate they were leaning towards supporting.

In addition to asking about races and issues on the Montana ballot, the Mountain States Poll also asks a variety of questions about other issues in Montana, including higher education, gun control and terrorism.

SOME OTHER races that were a part of the poll lined up with polls that have consistently shown Montana tilts toward Republicans, but not completely so.

While Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by more than 16 points in 2020, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is polling slightly worse, with Trump leading by a 52% to 34% margin.

While other polls have demonstrated that Montanans are mixed about the performance of Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte, who is a Republican up for re-election this year, 44% approved of the job he has done in office, while 30% disapproved or were neutral.

In election-race polling, Gianforte appears to have 50% support of voters compared to 31% for Democrat Ryan Busse. Gianforte appears to enjoy a wide margin of support among independents who favor him over Busse by a nearly 2-to-1 margin.

In Montana’s Congressional races, the First District race, a rematch between Congressman Ryan Zinke, a Republican and former U.S. Secretary of The Interior, and Democrat Monica Tranel shows a very tight race. Nearly as many poll respondents disapproved of Zinke’s job as approved of him, 36% to 34% with 15% remaining neutral. When translated into election polling, Zinke holds a lead over Tranel, 44% to 37%, but Libertarian candidate Dennis Hayes showed at 4%, which could be enough to sway the race. Tranel holds an advantage over Zinke among independents while Zinke has a sizable lead with younger voters and voters nearing retirement age.

Meanwhile, in Montana’s Second Congressional District, where Rep. Matt Rosendale, a Republican, is leaving office, his approval rating fares little better than Zinke, with only 30% approving of the job he’s done, while 29% disapproved and 17% remain neutral.

The race in the second district, though, has a different dynamic, with two Democrats, primary winner John Driscoll, and Reilly Neill mounting a write-campaign. The district leans heavily Republican, with current Montana Auditor Troy Downing holding a lead over the Democrat Driscoll, 43% to 26%. However, the other two candidates, Neill and independent John Metzger have 7% support combined.

THE POLL spent considerable time asking Montanans about issues related to abortion and reproductive rights. That’s in part because Constitutional Initiative 128 would codify into the state constitution the right to an abortion up to the point of fetal viability, generally considered around 21 weeks.

Polling shows that 60% of Montanans favor the initiative, a number that has remained relatively consistent throughout the year. Ten percent of those polled remained neutral while 25% said they disapproved of it.

The support shows that a majority of all voting blocs approve of the measure, with Democrats at 84%, Republicans at 54% and independents at 60%.

Nearly 9-in-10 Montanans also believe abortion should be legal in certain or all circumstances, according to the poll. While 28% of respondents said that their religious views helped form their opinion about abortion, more than half said their religion played no part or they didn’t identify as religious.

THE MOUNTAIN States Poll has also asked Montana voters about a variety of issues that weren’t directly related to the election or topics that have been in the news.

For example, 41% of Montanans said they approved of supporting Israel in the ongoing war with Hamas, while 30% disapproved and 18% remain neutral. Forty-one percent of Montanans said they disapprove of continued use of the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria. Montanans also expressed a strong desire to remain in NATO, with 58% approving and only 20% saying the U.S. should exit.

Even though Montana has been known for its high percentage of gun ownership and use, three-in-four Montanans favor mandatory background checks in order to purchase a gun, according to the poll. The issue is one that has cross-party support with 90% of Democrats supporting it, 73% of Republicans and 78% of independent voters approving of the idea.

More than half of Montanans (57%) said they were worried about immigration, with most of the concern centering on crime and public safety. However, more Montanans were worried about terrorism at home (domestic) than threats from abroad. While 65% of Montanans said they were concerned about international terrorism, 73% were concerned about domestic terrorism.

The poll also showed decreasing support for a college education, with Montanans being nearly split as to whether a four-year degree is advantageous. Forty percent said they believed it would help, but 36% said no, while the remaining 20% said maybe it would help.

Researchers also asked if a four-year degree is as valuable or useful now as in previous years, and 56% said no, with only 27% answering affirmatively.

Darrell Ehrlick is the editor-in-chief of the Daily Montanan, a nonprofit newsroom.