Libertarian Sid Daoud might be an election spoiler. He doesn't care.
Sid Daoud had a normal start to his day on Friday, Aug. 9. He went to work, not expecting a night of political coaxing.
When a plane arrived in Kalispell that afternoon to fly the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate to Bozeman to meet with Senate Republican hopeful Tim Sheehy and former President Donald Trump ahead of a rally, Daoud said that he was confused, but excited to talk about his priorities with the GOP candidates.
But the invite was not to just talk policy.
According to Daoud, it was an organized effort to persuade him to drop out of the Senate race and endorse Sheehy, the political newcomer attempting to unseat three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester.
“What a nice guy, Sid,” Trump said during the Aug. 9 rally. “... A lot of us are Libertarian and I think he’s going to be giving you a very nice surprise soon.”
Daoud interpreted that as a hint to end his campaign and support Sheehy. But Daoud said that was never an option.
“The reality is, I didn’t have any announcement. I am still in this race,” Daoud said last week.
THE FIGHT FOR Tester’s Senate seat has become a high-profile race nationally with its potential to decide what party controls the Senate.
Democrats currently hold the Senate 51-49 and are expected to lose a seat in West Virginia in the fall, putting pressure on Tester to maintain his spot. The loss of another Democrat would mean the Republicans would have majority control of the Senate in 2025.
High ranking Republicans, such as Sen. Steve Daines, handpicked Bozeman businessman Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL, to take on the senior senator.
As a third-party choice in the narrow race, Daoud’s campaign has the potential to tip the balance of power in Congress.
In the aftermath of the Trump-Sheehy rally, the initiative to encourage Daoud to drop out seemed to come from a place of uncertainty, or worry, from Republicans about how many votes the Flathead Valley Libertarian could get in November — and consequently, how many of those votes would have otherwise gone to Sheehy.
“There is a perception, and there is a reason for it, that the Libertarian poses a big threat to the Republican,” Lee Banville, a political analyst and director of the University of Montana School of Journalism, said last week.
Tester has a history of close races, at times with a Libertarian candidate pulling a percentage of the vote within the margin of error. In 2012, Tester beat Republican Denny Rehberg by just 3.7% of the vote. Libertarian Dan Cox received 6.6% of the overall vote in that election.
While the numbers are small, third-party voters have the potential to affect the overall results of an election, Banville said.
For that reason, Republicans have a right to be concerned, Banville said.
“That has been the traditional Libertarian position. They are not the Republicans; they are an alternative vision for what government should do. They have long argued that they aren’t there to be a spoiler. They aren’t going to kowtow for a party,” Banville said.
If Republicans align more with Daoud’s views, Daoud could take some votes away from Sheehy.
“It’s like in [the mind of the Republicans], I am the only thing in the way between Sheehy and Tester,” Daoud said last week.
Although some attribute Tester’s 2012 win to campaign success rather than a spoiler candidate.
“[Some argue that] what really swung that race was that Tester was successful in polling independent and moderate Republicans to vote for him, where Denny Rehberg really struggled,” said Eric Austin, head of the political science department at Montana State University.
However, third-party candidates can play a role in election dynamics in cases where the race is closely contested as “spoilers,” Austin said.
Sheehy leads Tester 51% to 44%, according to an Aug. 20 poll completed by Public Opinion Strategies on behalf of the Republican party. Daoud polled at 2%.
A Rasmussen Reports poll conducted Aug. 13-20 showed Sheehy ahead by 7 points.
“Here, it is a contested race, but it is a competitive race as well... any candidate who is perceived to have potential to pull votes away from one of the two main parties is a threat. Certainly, for Tim Sheehy having a Libertarian in the race is of concern,” Austin said.
Despite Sheehy’s attempt to convince Daoud to step aside, some state Republicans maintain confidence that November will be an all-around GOP victory, even with a Libertarian on the ballot.
“I don’t think [Daoud] will be a spoiler; I think he’ll get a lower percentage of the vote than a normal Libertarian,” said Don Kaltschmidt, head of the Montana Republican Party, stating that Daoud may be too liberal in some of his views.
The state Republican party “feels really confident” that they will be victorious whether a Libertarian is in the race or not, he added.
THERE IS CONCERN among Democrats about another third party: the Green Party.
Montana Democrats recently sued the state to withdraw Green Party candidate Robert Barb’s nomination for Senate, claiming that it was not made in accordance with Green Party rules. This marks the third U.S. Senate election in a row that the Montana Democrat Party has sued to block the Green Party from the ballot.
Green Party voters are typically more liberal and could take votes from a Democrat candidate.
Montana Democrats claim that the Green Party failed to submit its candidate in time under the guise of the Republican Party.
“There is no question that the Montana Republican Party has a history of Green Party meddling – funding efforts to qualify the party for the ballot, recruiting signature gatherers, and installing Republicans to run as Green Party candidates. Robert Barb is without a doubt a Republican,” said Robyn Driscoll, chair of the Montana Democratic Party.
“Robert Barb's placement on the ballot was done in violation of Montana law, and no Green Party candidate should appear on the ballot as a U.S. Senate candidate,” she continued.
FOR DAOUD, being a spoiler is the last thing on his mind.
He said he wants to offer voters a “true Montanan choice” outside of wealthy politicians and so-called culture wars.
“[Libertarians] don’t often see themselves as spoilers,” Banville said. “They see themselves as an alternative choice.”
Daoud echoed the sentiment.
“My personal feeling is that both big parties have put us in the situation we’re in today,” Daoud said. “I want to give people another choice, and I think that Montana will eventually make that change.”
Daoud, a 57 year-old father of three, is chair of Montana’s Libertarian party and a veteran.
Born in Great Falls, Daoud was raised by a liberal mother and a conservative father, allowing him to “do this own thing,” he said. He continues to “do his own thing” today, despite outside pressures, he said.
“Most Montanans are like me; just want to be left alone and allowed to flourish by ourselves,” Daoud said. “... Nothing against Trump, but I am seriously upset and disappointed.”
Daoud pointed toward inflation, federal debt and a failing economy as the main issues he would like to address.
But the odds of a Libertarian win are grim, Austin said.
“The economics of these campaigns in a state like Montana means that the practical reality is that for any third-party candidate... it really creates this sort of bar that's hard to reach,” Austin said. “This is a post-Citizen United problem, if money is political speech and if there are no limits on that, then it becomes this sort of financial arms race and it places unknown candidates or outside candidates on the backfoot.”
Sheehy’ campaign has raised just over $14 million since January, according to the Federal Election Commission. Tester’s campaign raised nearly $44 million in that same time.
Daoud has raised just over $5,000, which is the threshold for the initial report to the Federal Election Commission, he said. He will be turning a finance report in for the first time soon.
“We should be able to participate with our government a lot more than we can right now,” Daoud said.
While Daoud is aware that third-party candidates could spoil an election, he said he doesn’t care.
"People have this view of me being in this race [for the wrong reasons]. There’s a lot of people vested in the left or the right that are very angry that I’m even here. The reality is that both sides have caused this issue, especially our economic issues, so to [Libertarians] it doesn’t matter who is in charge,” Daoud said. “It matters who is going to be the first to do something different.”
Daoud hopes that one day Montana will elect a Libertarian to Congress, something he says will give the state a new level of national importance and attention to get things done.
“I just hope Montanans know why I’m running,” Daoud said. “I’m not here to play the game, I’m here to change it.”
Reporter Kate Heston can be reached at kheston@dailyinterlake.com or 758-4459.
Kalispell City Councilor Sid Daoud is running as a Libertarian in the upcoming Senate election. (Kate Heston/Daily Inter Lake)Kate Heston