Sheehy maintains poll lead over Tester

U.S. Senate candidate Tim Sheehy held a commanding lead with likely Montana voters in a new election poll commissioned by AARP.

The poll, released Sept. 5, reflects the responses of 1,064 likely voters age 18 to 65-plus with an overall sampling error of plus or minus 4%. The error margin is a tighter 3.5% for people age 50 and over, who were oversampled to get a closer look at Montana’s most reliable voting bloc.

Sheehy, a first-time Republican candidate, held an 8-point advantage over incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester — a margin wide enough to suggest a Sheehy victory if the election were held today, even if the poll’s error margin turns out to have understated voter support for Tester, who is Montana’s only statewide elected Democrat.